The EV Eagle picks out five value angles across La Liga and the Carabao Cup for Thursday's action.
Thursday brings a bumper card, with two rescheduled La Liga fixtures taking centre stage alongside the Carabao Cup's second round. Barcelona host Athletic Bilbao at Camp Nou in their first home game of the season, Celta Vigo welcome Osasuna to Balaidos in a fixture postponed earlier this month due to a pitch issue, and both Chelsea and Fulham turn their attention to cup duty against lower-league opposition following their Monday night meeting in the Premier League.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Tip 1: Lamine Yamal - Anytime Goalscorer
Advised Stake: 1pt
Best Odds: 21/20 (Ladbrokes)
Yamal has a strong individual history against Athletic Bilbao, with two goals and two assists in six career La Liga appearances against the Basque side, including the winner the last time Barcelona travelled to San Mames. He missed the final six games of last season through injury and had a solid rather than spectacular World Cup, but his underlying numbers have held up regardless, with shots on target of 0, 1, 2, 2 and 1 across his last five Barcelona starts.
Now back up to speed and facing a side he's traditionally saved his best for, Yamal opening Barcelona's home campaign with a goal looks a fair price.
Tip 2: Inaki Williams - Over 0.5 Tackles
Advised Stake: 1pt
Best Odds: 11/10 (Betway)
Williams' defensive workload from the front has been a consistent feature of his game, and he's exceeded 0.5 tackles in four of his last five appearances. Athletic head into Camp Nou off the back of a 3-1 defeat to Sevilla and a wider dip in form that has seen them lose four of their last five league matches, meaning their forwards are likely to be pressed into extra defensive duty out of possession against a dominant Barcelona side. With Williams renowned for his work rate regardless of the scoreline, this looks a comfortable line to clear.
Tip 3: Javi Rodriguez - Over 0.5 Shots
Advised Stake: 1pt
Best Odds: 11/10 (Coral)
Javi Rodriguez has exceeded 0.5 shots in five of his last seven games and three of his last four, a solid record for a defender who has become an established part of Celta's back line. Celta went through pre-season unbeaten and retained Claudio Giraldez's system, one that encourages full-backs to push forward and support attacks, while Osasuna arrive winless in six consecutive matches. With Celta expected to dominate the ball at Balaidos, Rodriguez getting forward to test Sergio Herrera's goal looks a reasonable angle.
Tip 4: Chelsea Win & Both Teams to Score - No
Advised Stake: 1pt
Best Odds: 10/11 (bet365)
Chelsea make an early appearance in this season's Carabao Cup, hosting League One's Luton Town just three days after Xabi Alonso's winning start to life at Stamford Bridge, a 3-2 victory over Fulham. Alonso is expected to make wholesale changes against lower-league opposition, but even a much-changed Chelsea side carries considerably more quality than a Luton team who have suffered back-to-back relegations since their Premier League days.
Chelsea have beaten Luton in each of their last four meetings across all competitions, including a double over the Hatters during their solitary Premier League season, without conceding in three of those four. With the gulf in class expected to tell at Stamford Bridge, backing a home win alongside Luton failing to find the net looks the shrewd way to play this one.
Tip 5: Rodrigo Muniz - Anytime Goalscorer
Advised Stake: 1pt
Best Odds: 21/20 (Virgin Bet)
Fulham host League One's AFC Wimbledon in the Carabao Cup second round just three days after their narrow 3-2 defeat to Chelsea in the Premier League opener, a game in which Josh King got on the scoresheet for Alvaro Arbeloa's side. Muniz remains Fulham's most consistent focal point in attack, and against lower-league opposition likely to sit deep and compact at Craven Cottage, his physicality and movement in the box should give him a clear route to goal.
Wimbledon reached this stage with a shock win over a Championship side, but stepping up two divisions against a Premier League outfit determined to progress in the cup represents a significant leap in quality, and Muniz finding the net on home soil looks the standout individual angle from this tie.
*Can replace with Gonzalo Garcia or Emile Smith Rowe if Muniz does not start.
