Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest

Liverpool welcome Nottingham Forest to Anfield on Saturday afternoon looking to put their opening-day disappointment behind them, while Forest arrive on Merseyside searching for their first win under Oliver Glasner.

The Reds were forced to settle for a 2-2 draw against Newcastle United last weekend despite registering 27 shots and posting an impressive 2.73 expected goals. However, defensive vulnerabilities remain a concern, particularly when opponents break at pace.

Forest have lost both of their opening games under Glasner, but their attacking threat should not be dismissed. They have scored in each of their last 10 Premier League away matches, while Morgan Gibbs-White has established himself as one of their biggest attacking weapons.

With Liverpool expected to dominate possession but potentially leaving space in transition, there could be opportunities at both ends.

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Best Bet

Best Bet: Both Teams To Score – Yes

Best price 8/11 with various bookmakers.

Liverpool's attacking numbers from their draw at Newcastle provide plenty of encouragement for anyone considering backing the Reds to score, but their defensive performance offers just as compelling a reason to oppose them keeping a clean sheet.

The Reds conceded twice at St James' Park, with Newcastle repeatedly finding space when they broke forward. That could be an issue again against a Forest side whose approach under Glasner is likely to place considerable emphasis on quick transitions.

Forest have scored in their last 10 Premier League away games, finding the net 15 times across their last five matches on the road. That is a particularly interesting trend given the way Liverpool struggled to deal with counter-attacks last weekend.

There is also a strong historical reason not to write Forest's attacking prospects off. They have won each of their last two visits to Anfield, including a 3-0 victory last season, while Gibbs-White has either scored or assisted in three of Forest's last six goals at the stadium.

Liverpool, meanwhile, created enough chances against Newcastle to suggest they should have little trouble finding the net themselves. They recorded 27 shots and 2.73 xG, with Cody Gakpo particularly prominent after finding the net from one of six attempts.

Who is favourite to win Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?

Liverpool are clear favourites in the match betting, priced at 11/20 to claim all three points at Anfield.

The draw is available at 15/4, while Forest are outsiders at 23/4.

Those odds reflect Liverpool's home advantage and superior attacking options, but Forest's recent record in this fixture should provide some caution. The visitors have beaten Liverpool in their last two league meetings, while the Reds are currently without a win in their last five Premier League matches.

Liverpool's record in home openers is considerably more encouraging, though. They have won their first Premier League home game in 12 of the last 13 seasons, with their only dropped points during that sequence coming in a 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace in 2022-23.

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Bet Builder Tips

Nikola Milenkovic – 2+ fouls

Milenkovic played on the left side of Forest's back three against Leeds and looks set to be covering both Rio Ngumoha, who attempted the most dribbles per 90 in the Premier League last season, and Jeremy Frimpong.

Ngumoha averages 2 fouls won per 90 and his recent fouls-won count reads: 1, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 3, 1, 2, 2.

Frimpong has also won 2+ fouls in two of his last three Premier League games and isn't afraid to get forward on the overlap.

Milenkovic's foul count reads: 1, 3, 1, 0, 2, 1, 0, 3, 1, 1 in the Premier League.

Newcastle's left-back Hall was also very busy against Liverpool last week, committing two fouls and making five tackles.

Igor Jesus – 2+ shots

Igor Jesus has already shown a willingness to shoot during Glasner's first two games in charge.

The Forest striker registered three attempts against Leeds in the Premier League opener, with one finding the target, before again testing the goalkeeper in the subsequent EFL Cup meeting.

Liverpool's vulnerability in transition makes this particularly interesting. If Forest can release Jesus quickly after winning possession, he should have opportunities to get attempts away.

He averaged 2.72 shots per 90 across his 28 Premier League starts last season, providing a solid statistical foundation for backing him to reach two attempts at Anfield.

Jeremie Frimpong – 2+ fouls

Frimpong's attacking role under Iraola could make him an interesting foul selection.

The Liverpool right-back is expected to push high up the pitch, which should see him involved heavily in one-on-one situations. That can leave him exposed when possession turns over, particularly against Forest's left-sided players.

Frimpong has already committed at least one foul in eight of his last nine Premier League appearances in the supplied sample, including 2+ fouls in five of those matches.

Nottingham Forest's left flank has two most fouled players on it:

Neco Williams Fouls Won: 2, 1, 0, 1, 2, 4, 0, 1, 0, 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 0, 0, 1, 0
Dan Ndoye Fouls Won: 1, 1, 2, 1

 

 

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Prediction

Liverpool should have enough attacking quality to edge this one, but I would not be rushing to back them at a short price given the defensive concerns evident against Newcastle.

Iraola's Liverpool side created plenty of chances last weekend, but their aggressive structure also left space for Newcastle to exploit. Forest have the personnel to attack those spaces, and Glasner's teams have traditionally been comfortable playing in transition.

That makes Forest scoring a realistic possibility even if Liverpool ultimately control most of the game.

The Reds' home record and attacking firepower give them the edge, but the stronger betting angle is for goals at both ends.

Prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Nottingham Forest

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Value Bet Tips

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Predicted Lineups

Liverpool

Liverpool could name an unchanged side from the draw at Newcastle, lining up in a 4-2-3-1 with Virgil van Dijk anchoring the back line and Szoboszlai sitting deeper in midfield. Joe Gomez remains a few weeks from a return with a muscle injury, while Giovanni Leoni, Conor Bradley and Hugo Ekitiké are all longer-term absentees, leaving little room for change.

Formation: 4-2-3-1

Expected Starting XI: Becker; Frimpong, Van Dijk, Jacquet, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Szoboszlai; Ngumoha, Wirtz, Gakpo; Isak

Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest are expected to set up in a 3-4-2-1, with Igor Jesus leading the line and Dan Ndoye and Morgan Gibbs-White operating just behind. Gibbs-White is doubtful after a knee issue, while Ousmane Diomande could feature having played an hour in midweek, and Ryan Yates remains sidelined.

Formation: 3-4-2-1

Expected Starting XI: Sels; Murillo, Milenkovic, Diomande; Williams, Sangaré, McAtee, Aina; Gibbs-White, Ndoye; Jesus

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Yellow Card Tip

Dominik Szoboszlai to be carded @ 11/2

Szoboszlai looks an interesting candidate for a card at the available markets, particularly if Iraola continues to use him in a deeper midfield role.

The Hungarian was clearly frustrated against Newcastle and committed two fouls in the opening game, operating in a position where his defensive discipline becomes considerably more important.

His disciplinary record from last season is another major positive for this angle. Szoboszlai picked up eight yellow cards and one red card across 36 Premier League starts, more cards than any other Liverpool player during the campaign.

His tendency to step out aggressively from midfield could also become an issue against a Forest side looking to break quickly. If Gibbs-White or another Forest attacker manages to escape the first line of pressure, Szoboszlai could be forced into tactical challenges to prevent a dangerous transition.

Given his role, recent foul count and last season's disciplinary record, Szoboszlai to be booked is a player-card angle worth considering.