EV Eagle's Value Premier League Football Betting Tips on Sunday

How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Enzo Le Fée Over 1.5 Tackles — 1pt

AI Probability: 67.33%
Odds Implied: 54.05%
Expected Value: +24.56%
Odds: 1/1

Enzo Le Fée Tackles: 1, 4, 2, 2, 6, 2, 3, 1, 3, 5, 3

Enzo Le Fée was Sunderland's most frequent tackler last season, averaging 2.62 tackles per 90, and there is plenty to like about his chances of clearing this line against Fulham.

He managed just one tackle against Ipswich on the opening weekend, but Fulham should provide considerably more defensive work. The Cottagers' central players — King, Berge, Garcia and Iwobi — were responsible for five dispossessions in their opener.

Fulham also enjoyed an impressive 61% possession against Chelsea, suggesting there should be plenty of opportunities for Sunderland to win the ball back.

Given Le Fée's numbers last season and the likely increase in defensive involvement, Over 1.5 tackles at evens looks a strong value play.

Morgan Rogers Anytime Goalscorer — 1pt

AI Probability: 33.32%
Odds Implied: 27.78%
Expected Value: +19.95%
Odds: 13/5 with bet365

There is still some juice in the Morgan Rogers anytime goalscorer price, with Chelsea's attacking trio looking extremely dangerous after the opening weekend.

Rogers found the net against Fulham and registered three shots, while João Pedro and Palmer both picked up assists, highlighting that Chelsea's attacking players are capable of creating as well as finishing chances.

That is important for Rogers, who should continue to benefit from the quality around him. Brighton scored four goals in their opener, while Chelsea scored three, so there is plenty of reason to expect another high-scoring encounter.

At 13/5, Rogers is being given a 27.78% implied probability, while the AI makes him 33.32% likely to score, giving us 19.95% expected value. That's enough of an edge to make him one of the more appealing anytime goalscorer plays.

Sasa Lukic Over 1.5 Fouls — 1pt

AI Probability: 63.04%
Odds Implied: 50%
Expected Value: +26.08%
Odds: 1/1 with Ladbrokes

The one foul Sasa Lukic committed against Sunderland last week was uncharacteristically low, considering the Fulham midfielder averaged 2.76 fouls across his last 20 games for the club last season.

He was also carded nine times in 26 games, underlining the combative nature of his game, and this looks like a favourable matchup for him to return to those usual numbers.

Tielemans' presence in the middle of the park particularly appeals, with the Belgian drawing three fouls against Hull. Lukic averaged 2.12 fouls won per 90 across his last 20 games in all competitions, while Andrey Santos also drew two fouls in that game.

With plenty of potential for midfield battles, Lukic looks well placed to clear 1.5 fouls at even money.

Bryan Mbeumo Anytime Goalscorer — 1pt

AI Probability: 43.28%
Odds Implied: 37.04%
Expected Value: +16.86%
Odds: 17/10 with Ladbrokes

Bryan Mbeumo and Manchester United badly need a response here after their opening-day defeat to Hull, and the forward showed enough in that game to suggest the goals should come sooner rather than later.

Mbeumo registered four shots, two on target and an xG of 0.5 against Hull but failed to find the net. He scored 11 goals last season, and if he continues getting into positions like those, it feels only a matter of time before he converts.

A newly promoted Ipswich side looks like a good opportunity for Mbeumo to get off the mark, particularly with United needing a result. At 17/10, the AI probability of 43.28% gives us a healthy edge over the 37.04% implied probability.

Daizen Maeda Over 1.5 Tackles — 1pt

AI Probability: 59.59%
Odds Implied: 50%
Expected Value: +19.18%
Odds: 1/1 with Betway

World Cup: 2, 4, 0 tackles

Last eight games at Celtic: 0, 2, 3, 0, 3, 2, 3, 3 tackles

Daizen Maeda already showed his potential in this market with four tackles on his debut against Sunderland, and another busy afternoon could be on the cards here.

He faces Cunha, who has been Manchester United's third most dispossessed player across his last 20 games, creating an appealing matchup for Maeda.

The Japanese international's role is also set to be far more defensive than it was at Celtic. Sunderland's quick, direct transitions, their emphasis on full-backs getting forward on overlaps and their tendency to overload wide areas should all give Maeda plenty of opportunities to make tackles.

With four already on the board in his first appearance and an AI probability of 59.59%, even money looks worth taking.