The EV Eagle has five value bets in the Championship this evening.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Last time out:
- Martin Ødegaard – Over 1.5 Shots — 19/20 — 1pt - LOST
- Christos Tzolis – Over 2.5 Shots — 1/1 — 1pt - LOST
- Boubacar Kamara – To Be Shown A Card — 17/5 — 1pt - LOST
- Valentin Rosier – Over 0.5 Shots — 23/20 — 1pt - VOID
- Lamine Yamal – Over 0.5 Assists — 17/10 — 1pt - LOST
Lorent Tolaj Over 0.5 Shots On Target — 1pt
AI Probability: 72.37%
Odds Implied: 57.14%
Expected Value: +26.65%
Odds: 3/4 with Coral/Ladbrokes
Lorent Tolaj Shots: 2, 2, 2, 5
Lorent Tolaj Shots on Target: 1, 0, 0, 3
Preston have endured a difficult start to the season, losing each of their opening three games and conceding six goals in the process, and Lorent Tolaj looks capable of testing their defence again.
The forward scored his first goal for the club last Saturday against Portsmouth, producing a sharp first-time finish from a cross. That should provide a confidence boost, particularly given the goalscoring numbers he posted last season when he found the net 21 times in 35 games.
Tolaj has registered at least two shots in each of his last four games, while he managed three shots on target in his most recent outing. With the AI giving him a 72.37% probability of recording at least one shot on target, there looks to be plenty of value at 3/4.
Adrian Segečić Over 2.5 Shots — 1pt
AI Probability: 65.29%
Odds Implied: 47.62%
Expected Value: +37.11%
Odds: 11/10 with BoyleSports
Adrian Segečić Shots: 3, 4, 4, 5
Adrian Segečić has made a habit of getting shots away this season and looks well placed to clear a 2.5 line when Portsmouth take on Derby County in the Championship tonight.
He has taken 11 shots across his three Championship games, averaging 3.7 per game:
- 4 shots vs QPR
- 4 shots vs Lincoln
- 3 shots vs Bristol City
He also had 5 shots against West Ham in the League Cup, while he has already scored twice in his four appearances.
With an AI probability of 65.29% compared with just 47.62% implied by the odds, the 11/10 price offers a sizeable 37.11% expected value.
Mateus Mané Over 0.5 Shots On Target — 1pt
AI Probability: 58.52%
Odds Implied: 54.05%
Expected Value: +8.26%
Odds: 17/20 with Ladbrokes/Coral
Mateus Mané Shots: 4, 4, 2, 4
Mateus Mané Shots on Target: 3, 1, 0, 0
Mateus Mané is a player who isn't afraid to shoot, and there is enough evidence in his recent numbers to make Over 0.5 shots on target an interesting option tonight.
He has recorded at least two shots in each of his last four games, including four in three of those outings. In January 2026, he scored his first senior goal against West Ham, and his direct and confident style means he is more than willing to take responsibility in the final third.
Mané likes taking players on and shooting, while he led Wolves for shots on target per 90 minutes last season. As one of their main creative threats, he should have opportunities to get into shooting positions again.
The edge is smaller than some of the other selections, but the AI still gives him a 58.52% probability of hitting the target, compared with 54.05% implied by the odds.
Mohamed Touré To Score Or Assist — 1pt
AI Probability: 56.47%
Odds Implied: 50%
Expected Value: +12.94%
Odds: 1/1 with Sky Bet
Mohamed Touré heads into Norwich City's clash with Stoke City in strong scoring form and looks capable of making another decisive contribution.
The striker scored twice against Burnley last Saturday, his first league goals of the new season, taking him to two goals from three Championship starts.
His record since joining Norwich in January 2026 is particularly encouraging. Touré scored nine goals in 11 league games last season, including two hat-tricks, demonstrating just how quickly he can rack up goals when he gets going.
His underlying numbers are also trending in the right direction, with his xG this season reading 0.85, 0.62, 0.11, 0 across his four games. With confidence high following his brace, backing Touré to score or assist at evens gives us a 12.94% expected value according to the AI.
Southampton Win vs Birmingham — 1pt
AI Probability: 38%
Odds Implied: 35.97%
Expected Value: +5.64%
Odds: 7/4 with Betfred
Southampton have responded well to their difficult start and come into this one off the back of consecutive league victories.
Birmingham were in winning form themselves on Friday night, with Phil Neumann the unlikely hero as his brace secured a 2-1 away win against former League One promotion rivals Wrexham. That result was the perfect response to their heavy 6-1 Carabao Cup defeat against Brentford.
Southampton, meanwhile, had to come from behind against a fast-starting Millwall side on Saturday. Cyle Larin's brace inspired a dominant 5-1 victory at St Mary's Stadium, making it back-to-back league wins for the Saints.
Those victories have lifted Southampton to 18th, despite their pre-season points deduction, and they now have the momentum to build on that positive run. The AI gives Southampton a 38% chance of victory, slightly above the 35.97% implied probability, creating a 5.64% expected value at 7/4.
