The EV Eagle picks out five value bets from this evening's Championship football.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Last time out:
- Lorent Tolaj – Over 0.5 Shots On Target — 3/4 — 1pt - WON
- Adrian Segečić – Over 2.5 Shots — 11/10 — 1pt - WON
- Mateus Mané – Over 0.5 Shots On Target — 17/20 — 1pt - LOST
- Mohamed Touré – To Score Or Assist — 1/1 — 1pt - LOST
- Southampton – To Win vs Birmingham — 7/4 — 1pt - LOST
Cian Ashford Over 1.5 Shots — 1pt
AI Probability: 68.49%
Odds Implied: 50%
Expected Value: +36.98%
Odds: 1/1 with Coral
Cian Ashford Shots: 2, 3, 1, 3
Cian Ashford is in the kind of early-season groove that makes two or more shots a realistic target at Loftus Road tonight.
He has started all three Championship games, taking 6 shots, with 4 on target, while already contributing 2 goals and 1 assist. That's 2 shots per game and 2.4 per 90. He registered 2 shots, both on target, and scored in last Saturday's 2-2 draw with Sheffield United, having taken three shots and scored at Derby the previous week.
Cardiff's approach under Brian Barry-Murphy is another positive. They currently sit top of the league for possession at nearly 66% and generate plenty of attempts, including 28 against Sheffield United.
Ashford operates as a wide attacker or inside forward in Cardiff's 4-2-3-1/4-1-4-1 and regularly finds himself in shooting positions.
QPR have been defensively solid, conceding just two goals in three games, but they now face a Cardiff side that dominates possession and repeatedly gets into dangerous areas. Ashford's current involvement, expected starting role and Cardiff's shot volume give him a clear route to another two or more attempts.
It isn't a lock against an organised QPR side, but 1/1 looks appealing with the AI giving this a 68.49% probability, significantly above the 50% implied by the odds.
Tyreece Campbell Over 1.5 Shots — 1pt
AI Probability: 58.82%
Odds Implied: 47.62%
Expected Value: +23.52%
Odds: 11/10 with Ladbrokes
Tyreece Campbell Shots: 3, 1, 2, 5
Tyreece Campbell has emerged as one of Charlton's key attacking threats and his regular shot volume makes Over 1.5 attempts an appealing option away at West Brom tonight.
Campbell has started all three Championship games and has already registered 6 shots, with 3 on target, as well as scoring 2 goals. That's exactly 2 shots per game.
His recent numbers are encouraging, too. Campbell took 3 shots in the 1-0 win over Preston last Saturday, scored with his only attempt at West Ham the previous week, and managed 2 shots, both on target, when he scored against Derby.
He operates as a wide forward or inside attacker in Nathan Jones' side and consistently gets himself into shooting positions. Charlton have won all three league games and sit second in the table, giving Campbell a strong platform to continue finding opportunities even on the road.
West Brom should provide a sterner test, but Campbell's current volume, starting role and Charlton's attacking output give him a clear route to another two or more shots. With the AI making this a 58.82% probability against just 47.62% implied by the odds, there is a healthy edge at 11/10.
Will Lankshear Anytime Goalscorer — 1pt
AI Probability: 41.16%
Odds Implied: 38.10%
Expected Value: +8.04%
Odds: 13/8 with Sky Bet
Will Lankshear Expected Goals (xG): 1.3, 0.29, 1.23
Will Lankshear Goals: 2, 1, 0, 2, 1
Will Lankshear Shots: 4, 2, 3, 6, 5
Will Lankshear has made a blistering start as Middlesbrough's new No. 9 and faces a Burnley side that has struggled badly defensively, making him an obvious candidate to find the net at Turf Moor tonight.
Lankshear has started all three Championship games and already has 4 goals from 13 shots, with 5 on target. That's more than four shots per game. He scored twice in the 3-1 win over West Brom last Saturday from four shots, having also scored twice in the 2-1 win over Lincoln from six shots.
He has also found the net in both of Middlesbrough's Carabao Cup appearances, underlining just how quickly he has settled into his new role after joining from Tottenham as the club's main striker.
The matchup is particularly interesting. Burnley sit 23rd with one point from three games and have conceded nine goals, the worst defensive record in the division. They shipped four at Norwich at the weekend.
Middlesbrough are averaging two goals per game and create plenty of opportunities for Lankshear, who operates as the central focal point and regularly gets into the box.
With his finishing, shot volume and Burnley's defensive problems all pointing in the same direction, Lankshear has a clear route to another goal. At 13/8, the AI probability of 41.16% gives us a modest but positive edge over the 38.10% implied probability.
Camiel Neghli To Score Or Assist — 1pt
AI Probability: 38.69%
Odds Implied: 32.26%
Expected Value: +19.94%
Odds: 21/10 with Betfred
Camiel Neghli xG + xA: 0.25, 0.48, 0.52, 0
Camiel Neghli Player Shots Created: 2, 2, 5, 0
Camiel Neghli Shots: 2, 3, 3, 0
Camiel Neghli's combination of shooting and chance creation gives him multiple routes to a goal or assist when Millwall take on struggling Wrexham at The Den tonight.
Neghli has started all three Championship games and already has 8 shots and 1 assist, averaging nearly three attempts per game. He provided the assist in the 3-0 win over Norwich, where he also took three shots, before registering another three attempts in the 2-0 win at Bristol City.
Even in Millwall's 5-1 defeat at Southampton, he still managed two shots, showing that he remains involved regardless of the game state.
The Dutchman operates as a No. 10 or wide attacker and regularly gets into positions from which he can either shoot or create for teammates. That combination makes the score-or-assist market particularly appealing.
Millwall have home advantage and have started strongly there, while Wrexham sit 22nd with no wins and just two points from three games. Neghli is expected to start again in an attacking role, and his involvement in both shooting and creating gives him a clear route to a decisive contribution.
At 21/10, the AI probability of 38.69% is comfortably above the 32.26% implied probability, producing 19.94% expected value.
Kyle Walker Over 1.5 Tackles — 1pt
AI Probability: 52.70%
Odds Implied: 50%
Expected Value: +5.40%
Odds: 1/1 with bet365
Kyle Walker Tackles: 2, 2, 0, 2
Middlesbrough have enjoyed the second-highest average possession in the league at 64.6%, which could create plenty of opportunities for Kyle Walker to be called upon defensively.
Walker has recorded 2, 2, 0 and 2 tackles across his last four games, clearing this line in three of those four appearances.
The AI gives him a 52.70% probability of making at least two tackles, narrowly above the 50% implied probability at evens. It's a smaller edge than some of the other selections, but the combination of his recent numbers and Middlesbrough's high possession levels makes Over 1.5 tackles a reasonable 1pt play.
