The EV Eagle has four value tips covering Friday's action.
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When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
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Last time out:
Jason Kerr Over 0.5 Shots — 1pt - 11/10 - WON
Christ Tapé Over 0.5 Shots — 1pt - 11/10 - WON
Orri Steinn Óskarsson Anytime Goalscorer — 1pt - 31/20 LOST
Jon Aramburu To Be Shown A Card — 1pt - 11/4 LOST
Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo Bet Builder Tip - 0.5pts - 13/2 LOST
Anastasios Douvikas Anytime Goalscorer — 1pt
AI Probability: 42.14%
Odds Implied: 38.17%
Expected Value: +10.41%
Odds: 13/8 with BetVictor
Anastasios Douvikas Expected Goals (xG): 0.23, 0.83
Anastasios Douvikas Shots: 3, 4
Douvikas has started the Serie A season in excellent scoring form, finding the net in both of his opening two games, the equaliser at Udinese and the winner at Napoli. He took seven shots across those matches, with five on target.
That continues a remarkable away record. He had also scored in his final three away league games of 2025/26 against Genoa, Verona and Cremonese, meaning he has now scored in five consecutive Serie A away games. A sixth would put him in rare company, with Victor Osimhen the last player to achieve the feat in 2023.
There is also a strong historical angle here. Douvikas scored the last time these sides met at this stadium, opening the scoring in the 10th minute with a header from Lucas Da Cunha’s cross. Como went on to win 2-0 and Douvikas was named man of the match.
The matchup should suit him again. Standing at 1.86–1.87m, he provides a strong aerial target, while Como’s midfield of Da Cunha, Nico Paz and Baturina offers plenty of quality through balls and crosses. Genoa have lost both of their opening games, scoring no goals and conceding three, with their centre-backs looking vulnerable.
Como are also in the better overall form, remaining unbeaten and coming off an impressive away win at Napoli. Douvikas is expected to start ahead of new signing Moise Kean, giving him another opportunity to continue his excellent scoring run.
Julio Enciso Over 2.5 Shots — 1pt
AI Probability: 51.43%
Odds Implied: 46.51%
Expected Value: +10.57%
Odds: 23/20 with William Hill
Julio Enciso Shots: 3, 3
Enciso has already established himself as a high-volume shooter for Ipswich, taking three shots in each of his first two Premier League games this season.
He recorded three shots in 71 minutes against Sunderland and another three in 90 minutes against Manchester United. That gives him six shots from 161 minutes, working out at around 3.3 shots per 90, while he currently leads Ipswich for shots.
This is nothing new for Enciso. The attacking midfielder is happy shooting from distance and regularly looks to attack the box rather than waiting for the perfect opportunity. He averaged nearly 2.9 shots per 90 in Ligue 1 with Strasbourg last season and has also regularly posted 4+ shots per 90 during previous Premier League spells.
The match setup should provide opportunities too. Ipswich are at home and Enciso has already established himself as their main creative outlet, contributing two assists this season. Liverpool are likely to dominate possession, which should leave Ipswich looking for opportunities on the counter and from set pieces, situations where Enciso can get shots away.
Liverpool have also conceded goals in both of their opening games, with both ending 2-2, suggesting Ipswich should have opportunities despite the difficult opposition.
Enciso is expected to start in the No. 10 role and, given he has hit exactly three shots in both games so far, another high-volume shooting performance looks likely. Over 2.5 shots appeals at the available price.
Paul Okon-Engstler Over 0.5 Shots — 1pt
AI Probability: 65.9%
Odds Implied: 47.62%
Expected Value: +38.39%
Odds: 11/10 with Paddy Power
Köln's attack has been hit by a couple of significant absences, with Said El Mala and Thijs Dallinga - the two goalscorers from last week - both unavailable through illness.
That should put more attacking responsibility on the midfield, with Okon-Engstler expected to start again in a midfield three. With Köln's attacking options depleted, he could be asked to push forward more than usual and provide an additional threat around the edge of the box.
Okon-Engstler is also left-footed and has shown that he is willing to shoot from distance. At 1.86m, he isn't a typical box-crasher, but he is comfortable arriving late into attacking positions and getting efforts away from range.
Köln play an energetic, high-pressing style under René Wagner and created plenty of chances in their opener. Stuttgart, meanwhile, are coming off a 5-0 defeat to Bayern and could leave spaces for Köln to exploit on the break.
With a depleted attack potentially increasing Okon-Engstler's attacking involvement, there looks to be a clear route to at least one shot. The AI probability gives us a substantial edge over the implied price, making this an appealing value play.
Jude Bellingham Anytime Goalscorer — 1pt
AI Probability: 37.7%
Odds Implied: 28.57%
Expected Value: +31.95%
Odds: 5/2 with betmgm
Jude Bellingham Shots: 5, 1, 2
Bellingham has been involved in a goal in every La Liga game so far this season, contributing two goals and two assists across his opening three appearances.
He scored the opener at Espanyol, provided two assists against Real Sociedad and found the net again in the 4-0 win over Málaga last weekend. His attacking influence has been clear from the start of the campaign.
The shots are encouraging too. Bellingham has already registered eight efforts and four on target, including five shots and two on target against Málaga, where he also found the net.
Operating as the advanced midfielder in José Mourinho's 4-2-3-1, Bellingham is regularly arriving in the box and has plenty of opportunities to get into goalscoring positions.
The opposition also gives us plenty of reason for optimism. Real Madrid have scored 10 goals across their opening three games, while Betis were just beaten 5-0 by Levante. Their defence has looked vulnerable, and Bellingham's late runs from midfield could cause them plenty of problems.
Madrid are favourites and should create enough chances, while Bellingham's current form makes him one of the standout candidates to get on the scoresheet. At 5/2, the value is difficult to ignore.
