Our best bets and bet builder tips for Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid tonight.
Liverpool vs Atletico MadridSee All Odds
Liverpool welcome Atletico Madrid to Anfield on Wednesday night for a repeat of last season's Champions League league-phase opener, and another entertaining contest looks likely. The Reds have made a mixed start under Andoni Iraola, drawing with Newcastle and Nottingham Forest before beating Ipswich 2-0, while Atletico suffered a worrying 3-0 defeat at Athletic Bilbao last time out. Neither side looks completely convincing defensively, though both possess plenty of attacking quality.
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Best Bet
Liverpool to win & both teams to score
Best price 21/10 with bet365.
Liverpool are the side I want to be with here, but I am not convinced they will have things all their own way.
The Reds have made a slightly underwhelming start to the campaign, drawing 2-2 with both Newcastle and Nottingham Forest before finally getting their first victory under Iraola against Ipswich. Alexander Isak's early brace settled that contest, but Liverpool were hardly flawless and allowed Ipswich to work their way into promising positions.
That defensive vulnerability could be exposed again by Atletico.
Diego Simeone's side have failed to score in only two of their last 24 Champions League group-stage or League Phase matches, while they have also scored in four of their previous five visits to Anfield. Their recent form is a concern after Saturday's 3-0 loss at Athletic Bilbao, but there is enough attacking quality in this Atletico side to trouble Liverpool.
The Reds have conceded 13, 12 and 14 shots in their three Premier League matches this season, while Atletico have shown a willingness to shoot regularly. They registered 61 attempts across their opening four matches, albeit with a low average of 0.06 xG per shot.
That combination makes me reluctant to take Liverpool in a straightforward handicap market.
Instead, the better approach is to back the hosts to win while expecting Atletico to find the net.
There is also plenty of encouragement from the head-to-head. Liverpool won 3-2 when these sides met at Anfield in the Champions League last season, with Virgil van Dijk scoring a 92nd-minute winner. Liverpool have now won each of their last three Champions League meetings with Atletico.
The Reds have also scored in each of their last nine competitive matches, finding the net at least twice in six of those.
Atletico should make this competitive, but Liverpool's attacking options and Anfield advantage can ultimately carry them over the line.
Who is favourite to win Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid?
Liverpool are the 3/4 favourites to win Wednesday's Champions League clash. Atletico are 15/4 and the draw is 31/10.
Liverpool have never lost their opening European Cup or Champions League match at Anfield, winning 10 and drawing two of their previous 12 such games. Interestingly, each of their last three home openers in the competition have ended in 3-2 victories.
They also have a strong recent record against Spanish opposition in the League Phase, winning their last six such matches and keeping four clean sheets across their previous five.
Atletico's European pedigree should not be underestimated, though. Simeone's men reached the Champions League semi-finals last season and have now appeared in 14 consecutive editions of the competition.
The issue is their current form.
A 3-0 defeat at Athletic Bilbao was a major setback, while they have conceded six second-half goals across their last three matches.
Liverpool are therefore deserved favourites, but Atletico's ability to score makes the outright price less appealing than backing a home win alongside BTTS.
Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid Bet Builder Tips
Alejandro Grimaldo 1+ shot
Atletico are expected to spend spells defending deep, but their full-backs can still become involved when they get forward.
Alejandro Grimaldo has recorded 1, 2, 1, 1, 3, 1, 2 and 2 shots across his recent matches, giving him a remarkably consistent shooting floor.
With Liverpool likely to have plenty of the ball and Atletico looking to exploit space in transition, Grimaldo should have opportunities to get forward from left-back.
Jérémy Jacquet 1+ foul won
Jérémy Jacquet has been one of Liverpool's most reliable players for drawing fouls this season.
He has won one, two and one fouls in his three starts, while averaging 1.52 fouls won per 90 so far this campaign.
That is an improvement on his 0.92 fouls drawn per 90 for Rennes last season.
Jacquet is also the more proactive defender alongside Virgil van Dijk, stepping forward to contest duels and carry the ball out from the back. Atletico's midfielders and forwards are likely to press him when he receives possession, creating further opportunities to draw contact.
Atletico strikers among their most active foulers this season:
Ademola Lookman Fouls Committed: 1, 2, 0, 2
Kang-in Lee Fouls Committed: 2, 2, 1
With Jacquet having landed this selection in all three starts, 1+ foul won looks a strong addition to the Bet Builder.
Florian Wirtz 1+ foul committed
Florian Wirtz has already shown a willingness to get involved defensively, and Atletico's aggressive midfield should give him plenty of opportunities to commit a foul.
His recent foul numbers read 5, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 2, 1, 2, 1, 0, 2 and 1.
Atletico are expected to use Morten Hjulmand to limit Wirtz's influence between the lines, while Pablo Barrios is also likely to be involved in those central duels.
Morten Hjulmand Fouls Won (Incl Supersub): 2, 2, 2
Pablo Barrios Fouls Won(Incl supersub): 1, 2, 2, 3
That could make Wirtz's defensive workload greater than usual, particularly if Atletico manage to break Liverpool's initial press and force the German into recovery challenges.
The combination of Wirtz's recent numbers and Atletico's physical approach makes 1+ foul committed a worthwhile Bet Builder leg.
Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid Prediction
Liverpool 2-1 Atletico Madrid
Liverpool should have enough to make a winning start to their Champions League campaign, but I expect Atletico to make life uncomfortable.
The visitors have endured a poor start by their standards and were well beaten by Athletic Bilbao, yet their attacking numbers suggest they remain capable of creating chances. They have taken 61 shots across their opening four matches and have failed to score in only two of their last 24 Champions League League Phase outings.
Liverpool's defensive record also leaves the door open.
The Reds have conceded at least 12 shots in each of their three Premier League matches, so Atletico should get opportunities at Anfield. However, Liverpool's attacking quality, home advantage and excellent record in European openers should ultimately prove decisive.
Isak arrives in excellent form after his two-goal display against Ipswich, while Gakpo has already provided three Premier League assists, all for the Swedish striker.
Another 3-2 thriller like last season may be asking too much, but 2-1 Liverpool feels like the right call.
Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid Predicted Lineups
Liverpool
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Alisson; Jeremie Frimpong, Virgil van Dijk, Jérémy Jacquet, Milos Kerkez; Dominik Szoboszlai, Alexis Mac Allister; Cody Gakpo, Florian Wirtz, Bradley Barcola; Alexander Isak
With Conor Bradley and Joe Gomez unavailable, Liverpool have limited options in defence. Jacquet should continue alongside Van Dijk, while Kerkez occupies the left-back position.
Barcola could be handed his first start after coming off the bench against Ipswich, with Gakpo retaining his place on the opposite flank. Wirtz should operate behind Isak, who will be full of confidence after his brace last time out.
Atletico Madrid
Formation: 4-4-2
Jan Oblak; Marcos Llorente, Marc Pubill, Cristian Romero, Alejandro Grimaldo; Giuliano Simeone, Pablo Barrios, Morten Hjulmand, Alex Baena; Lee Kang-in, Ademola Lookman
Simeone has plenty of attacking options to choose from, with Julian Alvarez potentially pushing for a start after returning from the bench against Athletic Bilbao.
Lookman and Lee Kang-in are expected to provide a mobile front two, while Baena should offer creativity from the left. Hjulmand and Barrios will have the difficult task of disrupting Wirtz and Liverpool's midfield runners.
At the back, Grimaldo's attacking instincts could give Atletico an additional outlet, while Llorente has a particularly impressive scoring record at Anfield.
