The EV Eagle picks out some betting angles from Thursday's UCL games.
PSV vs Shakhtar Donetsk Bet Builder Tip
Gus Til 1+ Shot on Target & Newerton 1+ Foul - 6/4 - 1pt
Gus Til has started the season in encouraging shooting form and can test the PSV goalkeeper against an Atletico Madrid side tonight.
Til is averaging 2.12 shots per 90 across his last 20 games and has already managed 10 attempts in just five appearances this season. More importantly for this market, he has recorded five shots on target across his last three games.
His Champions League numbers also provide plenty of encouragement, with Til registering 1+ shot on target in three of his last four appearances — including games against Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid and Liverpool.
With his recent shot volume and ability to test the goalkeeper, Til looks capable of getting at least one on target again.
Newerton 1+ Foul
Newerton looks an interesting option to commit a foul against PSV, particularly given the player he is likely to face.
The winger has recorded 1+ foul in 14 of his last 20 games, including at least one in five of his last seven. His recent numbers read 2, 1, 3, 0, 1, 0, 1, while he has committed 2+ fouls in six of his last 20.
The matchup is the key here. Newerton faces Sergiño Dest, who has drawn the most fouls in the PSV side across his last 20 games at 2.12 per 90. Dest has already drawn 14 fouls in four appearances this season, including six and seven in two particularly busy games.
If Dest gets plenty of the ball down Newerton's side, the PSV full-back's ability to draw fouls gives this line plenty of appeal.
Fenerbache vs Roma Betting Tips
Mason Greenwood 2+ Fouls - 11/4 - 1pt
Mason Greenwood has been averaging 1.13 fouls per 90 across his last 20 games, but there is a good matchup for him to go beyond that number tonight.
Roma's Wesley is particularly aggressive in drawing fouls, averaging 2.05 per game last season and 1.55 per 90 across his last 10 appearances. Greenwood committed two fouls in his most recent outing against Besiktas and has landed 2+ in six of his last 20 games, while recording at least one foul in 12 of those matches.
With Wesley likely to spend plenty of time attacking down Greenwood's side, the Marseille forward could be forced into a busy defensive evening.
Bayern Munich vs Fredrik Sjovold Bet Builder Tips
Patrick Berg 1+ Shot & Fredrik Sjovold 1+ Foul - 20/23 - 1.5pts
Bodo/Glimt have already shown they are not afraid of Europe's biggest sides, and Patrick Berg could be the man to test Bayern Munich tonight.
Bayern rarely allow opponents to rack up shots, although they are not completely immune, with Stuttgart managing 11 in their season opener. Bodo/Glimt's impressive European run last season, which included wins over Manchester City, Sporting, Inter and Atletico Madrid, gives plenty of reason to believe they will approach this game without fear.
Berg is the obvious candidate to have a go. He is averaging 2.94 shots per 90 across his last 20 games and has recorded 2+ shots in each of his last nine appearances. His Champions League record is even stronger, with 1+ shot in 15 of his last 19 games, including against Inter, Manchester City, Juventus and Sporting.
He is also on free-kick duty, providing another potential route to a shot.
Fredrik Sjovold has been one of Bodo/Glimt's most reliable players for picking up a foul, and his matchup tonight could make another one likely.
Sjovold is their second-most frequent foul-maker across his last 20 games, recording at least one in 10 of his last 11 appearances. He has also committed five fouls across his last three Champions League games.
The matchup with Luis Diaz is particularly interesting. The Bayern winger has drawn the second-most fouls in the squad across his last 20 games, averaging 1.37 per 90. With Diaz likely to attack Sjovold directly, there should be opportunities for the Bodo/Glimt defender to get involved.
Como vs RB Leipzig Betting Tips
Antonio Nusa Over 2.5 Shots - 12/5 - 1pt
Antonio Nusa has quickly established himself as RB Leipzig's main source of shots, and the numbers suggest he could be busy again against Como.
Como have conceded 41 shots across their opening three Serie A games, while Leipzig currently sit top of the Bundesliga for shots attempted this season. Nusa leads Leipzig for league shots with six so far, adding another five in the cup.
His recent numbers are particularly encouraging, averaging 2.83 shots per 90 across his last 10 games. Given Leipzig's willingness to shoot and Nusa's role as one of their most active attackers, 2.5 shots looks a fair line.
Antonio Nusa Over 2.5 Shots
