How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

TIP 1: Gabriel Suazo - Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt

Best odds of 11/10 at Ladbrokes at the time of writing.

Gabriel Suazo has cleared the 1.5 fouls line in 4 of his last 16 games, although his recent numbers suggest there is potential for a higher-output performance here. He has committed 0, 5, 0, 4, 2, 3, 1, 0, 1 and 2 fouls across his last 10 matches, going over the line in five of those games.

Suazo has also been booked three times during that period, underlining his willingness to get involved defensively, while his home numbers are particularly interesting, with his last eight home games producing foul counts of 5, 4, 3, 0, 1, 1, 1 and 5.

Gabriel Suazo Over 1.5
Sevilla v Valencia [Player Fouls]
11/10

TIP 2: Esteban Lepaul - Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt

Best odds of 16/11 at Unibet at the time of publishing.

Esteban Lepaul has been in excellent goalscoring form, finding the net in 8 of his last 10 games and already scoring three goals across his opening three games this season.

His underlying shot numbers are just as encouraging, with Lepaul averaging 4.7 shots and 2.7 shots on target per game this season, giving him plenty of opportunities to find the net.

That form also follows an outstanding campaign last season, when Lepaul won the Ligue 1 Golden Boot after scoring 21 goals, so there is plenty of evidence to suggest he can continue to be a consistent source of goals

Esteban Lepaul
Rennes v Marseille [Anytime Goalscorer]
11/10

TIP 3: 3-Fold Acca for Friday's Matches

Friday's 3-Fold Accumulator consists of:

  • West Ham to Win & Both Teams To Score
  • Venezia v Fiorentina: Both Teams To Score
  • Union Berlin v Schalke: Union Berlin to Win

Best odds for the above Acca is 10/1 at bet365 at the time of publishing. 

LEG 1: West Ham v Wrexham: West Ham to Win & Both Teams To Score

Best odds of 21/10 at the time of publishing.

West Ham head into this one unbeaten in their last four league matches and have won each of their last three, with Jarrod Bowen playing a major role in that run after contributing three goals and an assist. The Hammers have also been the league's most prolific side so far, scoring 14 goals, and their attacking form makes them appealing at 21/10 to get the win while both teams find the net.

Wrexham have managed just one win from their opening five matches, alongside four draws and one defeat, although their defensive record has been respectable with only five goals conceded. They have scored just seven themselves, however, and will face a West Ham side that has been finding the net consistently.

The BTTS angle is particularly attractive, with eight of West Ham's last nine matches seeing both teams score, while their current attacking form suggests they can do enough to secure all three points.

LEG 2: Venezia v Fiorentina: Both Teams To Score - Yes

Best odds available of 8/15 at the time of publishing.

Both Venezia and Fiorentina are still searching for their first win and find themselves in the relegation zone, making this a fixture where the need for three points should be particularly clear.

Neither side has managed to keep a clean sheet in their last six matches, which points towards another open contest despite the relatively poor starts to the campaign. With both teams desperately needing a result and neither defence showing much consistency, backing both teams to score at 8/15 looks a sensible option.

LEG 3: Union Berlin v Schalke: Union Berlin to Win

Best odds of 7/5 available at the time of publishing.

Union Berlin and Schalke meet with both sides looking to gain an early advantage over a team positioned close to them in the standings, making this another important fixture at this stage of the season.

Schalke are yet to score in their opening two Bundesliga matches, although they did produce an impressive 0-0 draw against Bayern Munich on home soil. Union, meanwhile, have scored all of their goals at home so far, which makes their home advantage particularly important here.

The head-to-head record also gives Union reason for optimism, with Berlin unbeaten in their last four meetings against Schalke, although three of those games ended in draws. This could be another tight contest, but Union should have enough at home to finally turn that recent head-to-head advantage into a victory.

West Ham
West Ham v Wrexham [Match Result And Both Teams To Score]
21/10
Yes
Venezia v Fiorentina [Both Teams To Score]
4/7
Union Berlin
Union Berlin v Schalke
29/20