The EV Eagle picks out four value bets on Friday.
Mamadou Sangaré Over 1.5 Shots — 1pt
AI Probability: 54.16%
Odds Implied: 47.62%
Expected Value: +13.74%
Odds: 11/10 with Coral
Sangaré is Brentford’s holding midfielder, but he is not a pure ball winning midfielder, he shoots too once he has won the ball: 1.80 shots per 90 in the Premier League this season (6 shots from 302 minutes) after 1.97 shots per 90 at Lens last year. He also sits near 3.9 tackles per 90, so he wins the ball and looks forward.
Chelsea have conceded above average shots this season too.
Morgan Rogers To Score Or Assist — 1pt
AI Probability: 48.1%
Odds Implied: 44.44%
Expected Value: +8.23%
Odds: 5/4 with Paddy Power
Rogers has 3 goals and 1 assist in 349 Premier League minutes for Chelsea this season - 1.03 goal involvements per 90 - on 2.84 shots per 90 and roughly 1.03 SOT per 90.
He also managed 3 assists vs Leeds in the EFL Cup.
Brentford have already been open enough early (around 14–16 shots conceded per game). With three goals already from four starts he brings momentum here too.
With Palmer and Joao Pedro equally in good form, goals and assists can come from anywhere in this front three.
Florian Thauvin Anytime Goalscorer — 0.75pts
AI Probability: 37.53%
Odds Implied: 27.78%
Expected Value: +35.11%
Odds: 13/5 with Ladbrokes
Thauvin has 3 goals and 1 assist in 360 Ligue 1 minutes this season - 0.75 goals per 90.
He is averaging 4.11 shots per 90 and 0.69 xG per 90 this season so is clearly getting chances.
Monaco away is a tough ask seeing as they have started the season unbeaten, but Lens have found their feet in recent games and goals have been flowing.
Thauvin has had 15 shots across two games and that sort of output is hard to ignore.
Florian Thauvin Shots: 7, 8, 3, 1, 3, 2
Florian Thauvin Expected Goals (xG): 0.84, 0.53, 0.23, 0.79, 1.64, 0
Michael Olise Anytime Goalscorer — 1pt
AI Probability: 62.08%
Odds Implied: 52.36%
Expected Value: +18.57%
Odds: 10/11 with Betfred
Olise scored 15 Bundesliga goals at 0.60 per 90 last season with 3.90 shots and 1.90 SOT per 90 - elite wide-forward shooting. He also produced 19 assists (0.70 per 90).
He has three goals already this season and is averaging 5.31 shots per 90.
He is creating 0.43 xG per 90 too.
Union Berlin have conceded 10 goals in three Bundesliga matches this season. Bayern at home against that defence is exactly where Olise’s shot volume turns into goals. He already has a home goal and a six-shot night against Union in recent meetings.
