Croatia vs EnglandSee All Odds

Croatia and England meet in Rijeka level on three points in Nations League A Group 3, three behind Spain. Both lost to Spain and both won in Czechia. England beat ten man Czechia 2-0 on Tuesday through Anthony Gordon and Harry Kane, while Croatia lost 4-1 in Seville after Slaven Bilić made six changes. Luka Modrić returns to the starting side, and Josip Stanišić and Martin Baturina are over a virus. The game is played behind closed doors because of a UEFA sanction, with only schoolchildren and 100 England fans inside. England won 4-2 when the sides met at the World Cup in June.

Croatia vs England Best Bets

Best bet: Under 3.5 cards

Neither side has been picking up many bookings. Under 3.5 cards landed in eight of England's last ten games and seven of Croatia's, and their matches have averaged 2.4 and 2.6 cards respectively. The World Cup meeting in Arlington in June produced no cards at all, despite six goals and a lot of end to end football.

Croatia's opponents pick up 1.5 yellows per game against an average of 2.1, and England's opponents pick up 1.67 against 1.99, so neither side drags the other into a scrappy game. Referee Sven Jablonski averages around 3.25 yellows per game in the Bundesliga this season. There will be no home crowd in Rijeka to put pressure on him, and the last time these two met here, also behind closed doors in 2018, it finished 0-0.

The risk is Croatia's reaction to Seville, where they picked up four yellows and Bilić complained his side lacked aggression. But Croatia want to keep the ball with Modrić, Mateo Kovačić and Petar Sučić in midfield, and England had 66% of the ball against Czechia.

Under 3.5
Croatia v England [Total Cards]
4/6

Who is the favourite to win Croatia vs England?

Outcome Price
Croatia 15/4
Draw 3/1
England 3/4

 

England are 3/4 favourites, which implies about a 57% chance of an away win. They have won their last eight away games and dominated the June meeting, creating 3.20 xG to Croatia's 0.70. That price looks short for a trip to a full strength Croatia side that is unbeaten in nine competitive home games, and Croatia's best players were rested for most of the defeat in Seville. Croatia or the draw at 6/5 with IvyBet, or 11/10 with BOYLE Sports and Sky Bet, is the better side of the result market.

Croatia vs England Bet Builder Tips

 

1. Petar Sučić over 1.5 tackles

Sučić starts in central midfield, just ahead of Modrić and Kovačić, and he does most of Croatia's pressing. He has made two or more tackles in 10 of his last 18 appearances (55.6%), averaging 2.59 per 90, with two against Spain on Tuesday and three against Portugal at the World Cup. England's opponents make 15.3 tackles per game against an average of 14.4. England had 66% of the ball and 22 shots against Czechia, so Croatia will spend long spells without possession, and Sučić will be the first man to close down Elliot Anderson when England build.

2. Ivan Perišić over 0.5 shots on target

Perišić starts at left back, but he plays it like a winger and has set up two of Croatia's three goals this month. He has had at least one shot on target in 11 of his last 20 appearances (55%), averaging 0.98 per 90, and he hit the target in two of his last three starts at left back, against Ghana and Portugal at the World Cup. With Trent Alexander-Arnold pushing on from right back for England, there should be space on that flank for Perišić to break into.

3. Harry Kane anytime goalscorer

Kane leads the line and has scored in both Nations League games so far, and he scored twice against Croatia in June. He has scored in 10 of his last 16 appearances for England (62.5%), averaging 0.95 goals per 90, and he takes the penalties. Croatia have conceded in nine of their last ten games, including four in Seville on Tuesday. With Gordon and Bukayo Saka supplying him from the flanks and Jude Bellingham back behind him, Kane should get chances.

Croatia vs England Score Prediction

Croatia 1-2 England

Croatia are far better than they looked in Seville. Bilić made six changes there and Modrić played only the last ten minutes. This is the game he prepared for, with Modrić, Kovačić, Sučić and Baturina all available in midfield. Both teams have scored in eight of Croatia's last ten games, and they have scored in nine of them, so a home goal is likely, most probably from Perišić's side.

England have the stronger squad and the better form, with seven wins in their last ten. But they are missing Declan Rice, Cole Palmer and Nico O'Reilly, they are changing their goalkeeper and centre back pairing again, and Tuchel has already hinted at rotation for Tuesday. Kane and Gordon have scored in both games so far, and that partnership should give England a goal of their own.

The last time England played in Rijeka with no crowd, the game finished 0-0. It should be more open than that, but a tight game is on the cards.

England 2-1
Croatia v England [Correct Score]
15/2

Croatia vs England Predicted Lineups

Croatia: Livaković; Stanišić, Vušković, Gvardiol, Perišić; Modrić, Kovačić; L. Sučić, P. Sučić, Baturina; Matanović

England: Pickford; Alexander-Arnold, Guéhi, Konsa, Hall; Anderson, Scott; Saka, Bellingham, Gordon; Kane

Croatia are without Josip Juranović and Martin Erlić, and Ante Budimir, Dion Drena Beljo, Marin Pongračić and Lovro Majer are not in the matchday squad. Stanišić and Baturina have recovered from a virus. Nikola Vlašić could start on the right instead of Luka Sučić, Petar Musa and Andrej Kramarić are options up front, and Josip Šutalo could come in at centre back with Gvardiol moving to left back. England are without Declan Rice, Cole Palmer, Marcus Rashford, Kobbie Mainoo, Tino Livramento, John Stones, Dan Burn, Dean Henderson and Nico O'Reilly. Jordan Pickford replaces James Trafford in goal. Ezri Konsa trained in full on Friday, with Trevoh Chalobah and Jarrad Branthwaite the alternatives alongside Marc Guéhi. Jarell Quansah could start at right back, James Garner and Myles Lewis-Skelly are competing with Alex Scott in midfield, and Eberechi Eze is pushing for a start.