The EV Eagle returns after the international break with four tips for Friday, including two anytime goalscorer shouts.
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When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Tip 1: Kwame Poku - Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs West Ham
Best odds of 5/4 with Paddy Power when writing. 1pt advised stake.
Kwame Poku has registered at least one shot on target in four consecutive Championship starts, making him an appealing candidate to test West Ham’s goalkeeper on Friday evening.
West Ham’s defensive numbers strengthen the case. The Hammers are conceding an average of 4.4 shots on target per game, while opponents have managed six or more in three of their last four matches. That suggests there should be opportunities for QPR’s attacking players, even if the hosts control much of the contest.
Opposing left-wingers have also recorded a shot on target in five of West Ham’s 10 games this season, offering further encouragement should Poku operate down that flank.
QPR arrive sixth after losing just once in their opening eight league matches, giving them reason to approach this London derby with confidence. Provided Poku starts, his recent shooting form and West Ham’s tendency to allow efforts on target make this a selection worth considering.
Tip 2: Jarrod Bowen Anytime Goalscorer vs QPR
Best odds of 11/8 with Sky Bet when writing. 1pt advised stake.
Jarrod Bowen’s home scoring record makes him an appealing option to find the net against QPR. The West Ham forward has scored in four of his nine starts this season, while he has also struck in four of his previous six home starts for the Hammers.
The underlying numbers strengthen that case. Bowen’s 5.33 expected goals ranks fourth in the Championship, while his 3.61 xG at home places him third. Around 68% of his league xG has therefore come on home soil, highlighting how much of his goal threat has been concentrated at the London Stadium.
His involvement has remained substantial even when he hasn’t scored. Across his home league appearances against Charlton and Derby, Bowen registered 13 shots combined, demonstrating his ability to keep threatening without necessarily finding the finishing touch.
With a strong recent home scoring record and one of the division’s highest xG totals, Bowen looks a convincing candidate in the anytime goalscorer market Friday night.
Tip 3: Eren Dinkci Over 1.5 Shots vs Borussia Dortmund
Best odds of 6/4 with Unibet when writing. 1pt advised stake.
Eren Dinkci appeals to register at least two shots against Borussia Dortmund, having cleared that line in two of his three starts since returning to the starting XI this season.
Dinkci is projected to feature on the right of Bremen’s attack, and recent Dortmund opponents offer some encouragement for that role. Bilal El Khannouss and Tajon Buchanan both managed two or more shots against Dortmund for Stuttgart and Villarreal respectively.
The team numbers also suggest Bremen should have opportunities to threaten. Dortmund are allowing 10.33 shots per home game, while Bremen average 11.5 attempts on their travels. The visitors do not necessarily need to dominate possession for Dinkci to find the two efforts required here.
Assuming he retains his starting place, Dinkci’s recent record and the shooting opportunities Dortmund have allowed make over 1.5 shots an appealing angle.
Tip 4: Niclas Füllkrug Anytime Goalscorer vs Borussia Dortmund
Best odds of 3/1 with Paddy Power/Sky Bet when writing. 0.75pt stake advised.
At 3/1, Niclas Füllkrug catches the eye after scoring in three consecutive Bundesliga games. Bremen’s striker heads back to his former club looking to score in a fourth successive league appearance for the first time in his career.
His three goals from 1.52 xG represent an overperformance of 1.48 goals, placing him third in the league for positive goals-minus-xG differential. That highlights how efficiently he has converted his opportunities so far, although maintaining that finishing rate is a tougher ask than the scoring streak alone might suggest.
There should still be opportunities for him to extend that run. Bremen are averaging 11.5 shots per away game, while Dortmund have conceded 10.33 attempts per home match this season. Those figures offer encouragement that the visitors can create openings for their centre-forward, even in a difficult fixture.
The quoted 3/1 implies a 25% chance of scoring. His recent form makes that price worth considering, with the appeal resting on Bremen supplying enough chances for their in-form striker to capitalise again.
