The EV Eagle is back with five tips for Friday evening's football.
Iván Romero Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Deportivo La Coruña
Best odds of 5/6 when publishing. 1.5pt stake advised.
Levante forward Iván Romero has been enjoying an impressive run of shooting form, making him an appealing selection to register at least one shot on target against Deportivo La Coruña on Friday evening.
The 25-year-old has registered at least one shot on target in each of his last five La Liga appearances, including two against Real Betis, three against Barcelona and two against Sevilla.
Romero has recorded 18 shots across seven league appearances this season, with nine finding the target. That represents an impressive average of 3.48 shots and 1.74 shots on target per 90 minutes.
His recent goalscoring form provides further encouragement. The Spaniard has scored in three consecutive league appearances against Barcelona, Villarreal and Sevilla.
Romero was particularly effective in Levante's thrilling 3-3 draw with Sevilla on Monday, scoring once from two attempts, both of which found the target.
The opposition also offers an opportunity. Deportivo have conceded an average of 4.4 shots on target across their last five home matches, suggesting Romero could have opportunities to test goalkeeper Leo Román.
With Romero leading Levante's attacking threat and registering a shot on target in five consecutive league matches, the 5/6 available with bet365 looks worth considering. Oddschecker's EV Eagle model gives the selection a 57.7% probability of landing, above the 54.5% implied by the odds.
Jonathan Burkardt Anytime Goalscorer vs FC Köln
Best odds of 5/4 with Sky Bet when publishing. 1pt stake advised.
Eintracht Frankfurt striker Jonathan Burkardt has been in impressive goalscoring form this season, making him an appealing anytime goalscorer selection against FC Köln on Friday evening.
The German international has scored three goals in five Bundesliga appearances, finding the net against Augsburg, Mainz and Freiburg. He has also scored in five of his last ten appearances across all competitions.
His underlying attacking numbers provide further encouragement. Burkardt has registered 14 shots in five league appearances, with six finding the target, while accumulating approximately 1.9 expected goals (xG).
Even in Frankfurt's disappointing 6-0 defeat against RB Leipzig last Saturday, Burkardt remained an attacking threat, registering three shots, including two on target.
Opponents Köln have conceded ten goals in their opening five Bundesliga matches, failing to keep a single clean sheet.
Their away record is particularly concerning, having conceded six goals across defeats against Stuttgart and Hamburg.
Köln have now gone 19 consecutive Bundesliga matches without a clean sheet and are winless in their last 15 away league fixtures.
Burkardt has been responsible for a third of Frankfurt's nine Bundesliga goals this season and is expected to lead the attack again on Friday.
With Köln struggling defensively and Burkardt demonstrating consistent goalscoring involvement, the 5/4 with Sky Bet looks an attractive price. Oddschecker's EV Eagle model gives the selection a 44.4% probability of landing, comfortably above the 43.5% implied by the odds.
Robin Koch Over 0.5 Shots vs FC Köln
Best odds of 11/10 with bet365. 1pt stake advised.
Eintracht Frankfurt defender Robin Koch has demonstrated an impressive increase in his shooting involvement this season, making him an appealing selection to register at least one attempt against FC Köln on Friday evening.
The German international has recorded at least one shot in six of his last ten Bundesliga appearances, including each of his last four matches.
Koch has registered six shots across five Bundesliga appearances this season, averaging 1.33 attempts per 90 minutes. That's a significant improvement on last season, when he managed just 15 shots in 32 league appearances.
His recent performances have been particularly encouraging, registering three shots against Augsburg before recording an attempt in consecutive fixtures against Mainz, Freiburg and RB Leipzig.
Koch still managed a shot against Leipzig last Saturday despite playing only 45 minutes in Frankfurt's 6-0 defeat.
The matchup against Köln presents an attractive opportunity, particularly from attacking set pieces.
Frankfurt have scored a third of their Bundesliga goals from set pieces this season, while half of Köln's ten goals conceded have come from corners or free kicks.
Koch's aerial presence could prove important, with the 192cm centre-back winning 24 aerial duels across his five league appearances this campaign.
With Koch registering a shot in four consecutive league matches and Köln demonstrating vulnerabilities when defending set pieces, the 11/10 available with bet365 looks worth considering.
Oddschecker's EV Eagle model gives the selection a 49.2% probability of landing, slightly higher than the 47.6% implied by the odds.
Casper Tengstedt Anytime Goalscorer vs Le Mans
Best price of 2/1 with Sky/Paddy. 1pt stake advised.
Toulouse striker Casper Tengstedt has made a sensational start to his Ligue 1 campaign, making him an appealing anytime goalscorer selection against newly promoted Le Mans on Friday evening.
The Danish international has scored four goals in his last three appearances, finding the net against Lorient, Le Havre and Monaco.
Tengstedt was particularly impressive in Toulouse's 3-2 victory over Le Havre, scoring twice from five shots, before following that performance with another goal and an assist in Saturday's 2-2 draw against league leaders Monaco.
His underlying attacking numbers are equally encouraging. Tengstedt has registered 13 shots in just 225 minutes of Ligue 1 football this season, averaging an impressive 5.2 attempts per 90 minutes.
The 26-year-old has also accumulated approximately 3.4 expected goals (xG), highlighting the quality of opportunities he has received.
Friday's opponents Le Mans have conceded 12 goals across their opening six league matches, failing to keep a single clean sheet.
The newly promoted side have allowed opponents an average of 15 shots and 5.2 shots on target per game this season.
Le Mans have also conceded a league-high three penalties, which could be particularly significant given Tengstedt has successfully converted both of his spot kicks this season.
With Tengstedt scoring in three consecutive appearances and Le Mans struggling defensively, the 2/1 available with Sky Bet looks an attractive price.
Oddschecker's EV Eagle model gives the selection a 41.6% probability of landing, considerably higher than the 33.3% implied by the odds.
Thomas Jørgensen Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Le Mans
Best odds of 11/10 with bet365. 1pt stake advised.
Toulouse midfielder Thomas Jørgensen has been enjoying an impressive run of shooting form, making him an appealing selection to register at least one shot on target against Le Mans on Friday evening.
The 21-year-old has recorded at least one shot on target in each of his last three Ligue 1 appearances, including three against Lorient, one against Le Havre and two against Monaco.
Jørgensen has registered 12 shots across six league appearances this season, with six finding the target. That represents an average of 2.05 shots and 1.02 shots on target per 90 minutes.
His recent attacking contributions provide further encouragement. The Danish midfielder has scored twice and registered one assist in his last three league matches, finding the net against Lorient and Le Havre.
Newly promoted Le Mans have conceded an average of 16 shots per game across their opening six Ligue 1 fixtures, with 5.5 of those finding the target.
They have also conceded 12 goals in those six matches, averaging two per game, highlighting their defensive vulnerability.
With Jørgensen operating in an advanced midfield role and registering six shots on target across his last three appearances, the 11/10 available with bet365 looks an attractive price.
Oddschecker's EV Eagle model gives the selection a 51.9% probability of landing, compared with the 47.6% implied by the odds.
