The EV Eagle has identified five positive value bets for Friday night, with selections in Stuttgart v Gladbach, Bolton v Middlesbrough, Alavés v Málaga and Brest v Nice.
Friday night brings Stuttgart v Borussia Mönchengladbach in the Bundesliga, Bolton v Middlesbrough in the Championship, Alavés v Málaga in La Liga and Brest v Nice in Ligue 1. Oddschecker’s EV Eagle has picked out five selections that offer positive expected value.
The EV Eagle model compares its own estimate of how likely an outcome is with the probability implied by the bookmakers’ odds, and it highlights the bets where the model gives a better chance than the price suggests. We’ve selected five of its best value bets for Friday, 23 October, covering player shots, shots on target and fouls committed.
EV Eagle’s Best Value Bets for Friday
| EV Eagle Tips | Best Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Ullrich - Over 0.5 Shots | 1/1 | Paddy Power |
| Aidan Morris - Over 1.5 Shots | 11/10 | Coral |
| Hugo Bolin - Over 0.5 Shots on Target | 11/10 | bet365 |
| Antonio Blanco - Over 1.5 Fouls | 19/20 | Coral |
| Axel Witsel - Over 0.5 Shots | 5/6 | Paddy Power |
Odds last updated at 12PM Friday, 23rd October 2026.
TIP 1: Lukas Ullrich Over 0.5 Shots vs Stuttgart
Best odds of 1/1 with Paddy Power.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 60.6%
- Odds Implied: 50.0%
- Expected Value: 21.2%
Ullrich shots, last six starts: 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2
He’s had a shot in all six starts this season and two or more in four of them. Ullrich is averaging 1.73 shots per 90 in the Bundesliga, which is forward numbers for a wing-back.
Gladbach have lost all six league games, and with Kleindienst, Honorat and Castrop all out, Blessin needs his wing-backs to supply the attack. Ullrich is nailed on to start on the left again.
Stuttgart are giving up 18.2 shots a game in the league, so there’ll be chances to get forward even for the side that’s expected to lose.
TIP 2: Aidan Morris Over 1.5 Shots vs Bolton
Best odds of 11/10 with Coral.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 57.3%
- Odds Implied: 47.6%
- Expected Value: 20.3%
Morris shots, last 11 starts: 5, 4, 0, 1, 3, 1, 2, 2, 2, 0, 4
He’s had two or more shots in seven of his last 11 starts, and five against Cardiff and four at Stoke in the last two. He’s averaging 2.2 shots per 90 in the league.
Boro average 18.7 shots a game, and Morris is getting his share.
Bolton have conceded 12.9 shots a game in the league, and 17 or more in three of their 11.
TIP 3: Hugo Bolin Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Stuttgart
Best odds of 11/10 with bet365.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 50.1%
- Odds Implied: 47.6%
- Expected Value: 5.3%
Bolin shots on target, last seven starts: 0, 1, 1, 0, 2, 2, 7
He’s hit the target in five of his last seven starts, and the two blanks were a 45-minute shift at Freiburg and last week against Hoffenheim. Bolin is averaging 3.02 shots and 1.13 on target per 90 in the Bundesliga, and he scored twice against Elversberg.
He’s in one of the two No. 10 roles behind Machino, and with Kleindienst out he’s one of Gladbach’s main goal threats.
Stuttgart have allowed 5.2 shots on target a game in the league, including eight or more against Bayern and Hoffenheim.
TIP 4: Antonio Blanco Over 1.5 Fouls vs Málaga
Best odds of 19/20 with Coral.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 54.8%
- Odds Implied: 51.3%
- Expected Value: 6.8%
Blanco fouls committed, last eight starts: 3, 0, 0, 2, 1, 2, 2, 5
He’s committed two or more in five of his last eight starts, and three at Celta last weekend. Blanco averages 1.99 fouls per 90 in La Liga but wins only 0.66, so he’s very much the one doing the fouling.
Alavés commit 13.8 fouls a game in the league, and Quique’s side have taken one point from the last 15. They need to get after bottom-of-the-table Málaga.
Málaga’s midfield includes Dani Lorenzo, who wins 1.78 fouls per 90 in his starts. With their most-fouled player, Joaquín Muñoz, injured, Lorenzo is the obvious man for Blanco to get tight to.
TIP 5: Axel Witsel Over 0.5 Shots vs Brest
Best odds of 5/6 with Paddy Power.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 62.5%
- Odds Implied: 54.6%
- Expected Value: 14.5%
Witsel shots, last six starts: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 0
He’s had a shot in five of his six Ligue 1 starts this season, for 1.27 per 90. That’s high for a holding midfielder, and three of his seven league shots have been headers, so set pieces are part of the appeal.
Witsel sits at the base of Nice’s midfield alongside Boudaoui, and he’s in every predicted XI.
Brest have conceded 12 shots a game in the league. Brest also commit 14.3 fouls a game, which means free-kicks and set pieces for Nice to aim at the big man.
