EV Eagle shares four best betting tips from Friday's football action.
Oddschecker's EV Eagle has identified four value betting opportunities for Friday 30th October, with selections from the Championship, Bundesliga and Ligue 1.
Using the latest probabilities from Oddschecker's Expected Value Bets model, which is now free to use for everyone.
Each selection offers positive expected value (EV), with the AI model estimating a higher probability of success than the available bookmakers' odds suggest.
Elversberg vs Mainz
TIP 1: Phillip Tietz - Anytime Goalscorer @ 7/5
Best odds: 7/5 (Spreadex) | AI probability: 52.79% | EV: +26.7%
Phillip Tietz has established himself as one of the Bundesliga's most dangerous forwards this season, scoring five goals in seven league appearances for Mainz. The 29-year-old has found the net in six of his last 10 Bundesliga matches, including all three of Mainz's away fixtures this campaign.
He scored twice in a 5-0 victory over Hamburg before adding goals against Borussia Mönchengladbach and Schalke. His underlying attacking numbers are equally impressive. Tietz has registered 25 shots in seven league appearances, averaging more than 3.5 attempts per game, demonstrating his consistent involvement in Mainz's attacking play.
Friday's opponents Elversberg have struggled defensively since their promotion to the Bundesliga, conceding 15 goals in seven matches, an average of 2.14 per game. The newly promoted hosts also suffered a heavy 4-0 defeat against RB Leipzig last weekend.
Mainz have won all three of their away league fixtures this season, scoring 10 goals in the process, and Tietz has been responsible for four of those goals.
Oddschecker's AI model gives the German striker a 52.79% chance of finding the net, significantly higher than the 41.67% implied by the available 7/5 odds. That generates a projected positive expected value of 26.7%, making Tietz Friday's standout value selection.
Sheffield United vs Wrexham
TIP 2: Japhet Tanganga Over 0.5 Shots @ 1/1
Best odds: 1/1 (Betfair) | AI probability: 60.8% | EV: +21.6%
Sheffield United defender Japhet Tanganga has emerged as an unlikely attacking threat in recent weeks, registering at least one shot in six of his last 10 Championship appearances.
The former Tottenham centre-back has cleared this line in three consecutive league matches, producing eight shots across those fixtures. He registered one attempt against Portsmouth, three against Bristol City and four against Derby County last weekend.
Tanganga's attacking involvement is particularly impressive from set pieces. Of his 13 Championship shots this season, 12 have come following corners or free-kick deliveries, highlighting his importance when Sheffield United deliver balls into the opposition penalty area.
The 27-year-old has already scored twice this season, finding the net against Bolton Wanderers and Portsmouth, and also registered a headed shot on target when the Blades hosted Wrexham in March.
With Tanganga playing every minute of Sheffield United's opening 12 Championship fixtures, his consistent involvement and aerial threat make him an interesting selection to register just one attempt at Bramall Lane.
Oddschecker's AI model estimates a 60.8% probability of Tanganga recording a shot, compared with the 50% implied by the available evens price, producing a projected positive expected value of 21.6%.
Le Havre vs PSG
TIP 3: Achraf Hakimi Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 23/20
Best odds: 23/20 (Ladbrokes) | AI probability: 55.03% | EV: +18.31%
Achraf Hakimi's attacking involvement from right-back makes him an appealing selection to register at least one shot on target when PSG visit bottom-of-the-table Le Havre on Friday evening.
The Moroccan international has tested the opposition goalkeeper in five of his last 10 appearances across all competitions, including three consecutive starts earlier this month. Hakimi registered five attempts against Le Mans, three against Manchester City and two against Barcelona, producing a shot on target in each of those matches.
The opposition also strengthens the case. Le Havre have lost four consecutive Ligue 1 matches and are conceding an average of 4.9 shots on target per game this season.
Meanwhile, PSG lead the division for both total shots (20) and shots on target (7.4) per match, underlining their attacking dominance under Luis Enrique. With Ousmane Dembélé and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia sidelined through injury, Hakimi's forward runs could become particularly important in helping PSG stretch the hosts' defence.
At 23/20, the market implies a 46.51% chance of Hakimi finding the target, compared with Oddschecker's AI projection of 55.03%. That represents a positive expected value of 18.31%, making the PSG defender another potentially rewarding selection.
TIP 4: Josh Maja - Over 1.5 Shots @ 1/1
Best odds: 1/1 (Unibet) | AI probability: 52.89% | EV: +5.78%
Josh Maja heads into Friday's daunting clash with PSG in excellent shooting form, having registered at least two attempts in each of his last five Ligue 1 appearances. The Nigerian striker has produced 14 shots across those five matches, including four against Toulouse and three apiece against Auxerre and Marseille.
His most recent performance was particularly encouraging, scoring twice and registering three attempts in just 30 minutes off the bench against Marseille last weekend.
Despite sitting bottom of Ligue 1, Le Havre have remained relatively adventurous going forward, averaging 16.4 shots per game this season, the third-highest figure in the division. Maja has become increasingly influential in their attacking play, averaging more than three shots per 90 minutes across his eight league appearances.
PSG will provide a significant challenge, with Luis Enrique's side conceding only 10.6 shots per league match. However, the absence of injured captain Marquinhos could present opportunities for Maja to exploit when Le Havre break forward.
Oddschecker's AI model gives Maja a 52.89% probability of registering at least two shots, compared with the 50% implied by the available evens price. That produces a projected positive expected value of 5.78%, making him a potential value selection if named in the starting XI.
