How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Patrick Mainka Over 0.5 Fouls vs Mainz

11/10 with bet365 – 1.5pts (take no lower than 10/11)

Mainka has committed a foul in two consecutive matches heading into the final day, and the game state looks perfect for another physical centre-back performance. Heidenheim cannot secure automatic safety, but they must beat Mainz to have any chance of climbing into the relegation play-off place, so this should be a high-intensity, risk-heavy performance from Frank Schmidt’s side.

The matchup also suits the bet. Sports Mole’s predicted lineups have Mainka starting in Heidenheim’s back line, with Mainz expected to use Phillip Tietz and Sheraldo Becker as their front two, the exact type of mobile/physical pairing that can draw contact from centre-backs. Between them, Tietz and Becker have been fouled nine times across their last three matches.

With Heidenheim likely to push bodies forward and leave space for Mainz counters, Mainka should have enough covering and recovery situations to commit at least one foul.

Johan Manzambi Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs RB Leipzig

21/20 with BetMGM & Betway – 1pt (take no lower than 5/6)

Manzambi has landed 1+ shot on target in seven of his last nine matches, and the final-day context gives him a clear route to another effort on goal. Freiburg sit seventh and can guarantee European football with a win over RB Leipzig.

His season profile supports the shot-on-target angle. Bundesliga’s official player data credits Manzambi with five goals, two assists and 43 shots in 24 league appearances, while he is expected to start in Freiburg’s double pivot alongside Maximilian Eggestein. That midfield role gives him licence to arrive late around the box, and Leipzig’s attacking style should leave transition moments for Freiburg to exploit.

At odds-against, one Manzambi shot on target looks a fair price given his recent hit-rate and Freiburg’s need to play for the win.

Vincenzo Grifo To Score or Assist vs RB Leipzig

11/10 with BetMGM – 1pt (take no lower than 5/6)

Grifo has produced a goal or assist in five of his previous seven matches, including three of his last four at home, and he remains Freiburg’s most reliable final-third outlet.

The wider context is strong too. Freiburg can secure seventh with a win, and even with a Europa League final coming up, manager Julian Schuster has a clear incentive to protect their league route into Europe. Freiburg’s home record is also strong, with only three defeats in 24 home matches at Europa-Park Stadion in 2025/26.

With Grifo on penalties, free-kicks and a major share of Freiburg’s chance creation, 11/10 for a goal or assist looks a strong final-day play.

Budu Zivzivadze Anytime Goalscorer vs Mainz

9/5 with BetMGM – 1pt (take no lower than 6/4)

Zivzivadze blanked last time out, but before that he had scored in four consecutive matches, including a brace away to Bayern Munich.

The match situation should only increase Heidenheim’s reliance on him. They need to beat Mainz to have any chance of avoiding automatic relegation. WhoScored's data also shows he has taken 24 shots on target in 19 appearances, which is a healthy volume for a striker operating in a struggling side.

At 9/5, Zivzivadze is worth backing to rediscover his recent scoring touch in Heidenheim’s must-win fixture.

Wouter Burger To Be Shown a Card vs Gladbach

4/1 with Sky Bet – 1pt (take no lower than 5/2)

Burger looks overpriced in the card market after being booked in three consecutive matches during April, and his season-long discipline profile backs up the angle. WhoScored's data has him committing 2.10 fouls per 90 and receiving eight yellows and one red in the Bundesliga this season.

The context should make this a competitive midfield battle. Hoffenheim are locked on 61 points with Stuttgart in the race for the final Champions League place, and while they may need help elsewhere, they have to attack this game as a must-win. Burger is predicted to start in central midfield, while Gladbach are expected to include Kevin Stöger and Yannik Engelhardt, a pairing who have been fouled 18 times across their last five matches including the players who have been subbed on for them.

With Burger’s foul volume, recent booking streak and Hoffenheim’s high-pressure situation, 4/1 looks the standout value price.