
The EV Eagle has picked out five Positive Expected Value plays for Tuesday evening's Champions League action.
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In this new daily tipping series, the EV Eagle picks out their best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool, one of the premium tools available to Oddschecker+ subscribers.
In today's article, the Eagle has picked out five of the best Positive EV bets from Tuesday night's Champions League action.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Yesterdays Results:
Wolves vs Man United Bet Builder - Loss
Bryan Mbeumo G/A - Won
Luke Shaw - 2+ Tackles - Won
Casemiro Card - Loss
Running P/L: +3.6pts
Tip 1: Dennis Man - Over 1.5 Shots vs Atletico Madrid - 1.5pts
Best odds of 19/20 with BetMGM when publishing. As short as 2/9 elsewhere.
Before the recent international break, PSV's Romanian winger, Dennis Man, had gone on a run of recording 2+ shots in 5/6 games (13 total).
Since returning, he has failed this line, but this looks a prime opportunity for him to rediscover his shooting boots.
Atletico have conceded 39 shots in their two Champions League away matches this season, and Dennis Man had four shots in his last UCL home match vs Napoli.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 77%, so the odds of 19/20 with BetMGM when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 50% on this play.
Inter Milan vs Liverpool
Tip 2: Alessandro Bastoni - Over 0.5 Shots vs Liverpool - 1pt
Best odds of 11/10 with Sporting Index & SpreadEx. As short as 3/10 elsewhere.
In only two home starts for Inter this season has Alessandro Bastoni failed to record at least one shot on goal (vs Como & Lazio).
The Nerazzurri come up against a Liverpool side who have conceded 10 goals from set pieces this season (second-highest in the Premier League) and Christian Chivu's team may look to expose that with Bastoni's aerial threat.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 70%, so the odds of 11/10 with SpreadEx when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 47% on this play.
Monaco vs Galatasaray
Tip 3: Baris Yilmaz - Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Monaco - 1.25pts
Best odds of 17/20 with betway. As short as 1/5 elsewhere.
Galatasaray's Baris Yilmaz has been on a shooting tear as of late. Other than the fixture vs Fenerbache on December 1st, Yilmaz has logged at least 1 shot on target in 5/6 matches.
He has a total of eight during that run, including in Galatasaray's most recent Champions League match vs Union Saint-Gilloise.
That means Yilmaz has had at least one SOT in 3/4 Champions League starts and faces a Monaco side who are averaging 5.2 Shots on Target conceded per game in this year's competition.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 69%, so the odds of 17/20 with SpreadEx when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 31% on this play.
Atalanta vs Chelsea
Tip 4: Ederson - Over 0.5 Shots vs Chelsea - 2pts
Best odds of 5/6 available with William Hill. As short as 2/7 elsewhere.
Atalanta's Brazilian midfielder, Ederson, has had at least shot in all but two starts this season for his club (away to Napoli & home to Sassuolo) and in all four of his UCL starts (6 total).
The Bergamo outfit host Chelsea tonight, who have just conceded 30 shots across their past two games against Bournemouth (13) and Leeds (17).
With Chelsea's defence leaking shots and Ederson's shooting form consistent, this looks a good play at nearly even money with William Hill.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 69%, so the odds of 5/6 with William Hill when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 26% on this play.
Barcelona vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Tip 5: Lamine Yamal - Anytime Goalscorer vs Eintracht Frankfurt - 1pt
Best odds of 11/10 with Ladbrokes when publishing. As short as 8/13 elsewhere.
Tuesday's match against Frankfurt looks a great oppourtnity for Lamine Yamal to add to his eight goals this season.
The German side just conceded six goals on the weekend against RB Leipzig, and have conceded 3+ goals in 50% of away matches this seaosn.
Lamine Yamal comes into this one with three goals in his last five home starts and will look to capitalise on this leaky Frankfurt defence on Tuesday night.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 56%, so the odds of 11/10 with Ladbrokes when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 18% on this play.









