How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Tuesday's Results:

Aurélien Tchouaméni – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - LOST
Federico Valverde – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - LOST
Luis Díaz – Over 2.5 Shots - 1pt - 10/13 - WON
Gabriel Martinelli – Over 1.5 Shots -1pt - VOID
Ross Stewart – Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt - 27/10 - WON

2025/26 Season P+L: +23.1pts

Tip 1 - Julián Álvarez – Over 2.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds: 23/10 with Betway
Worst odds: 8/11

59.74% AI probability | 46.3% Odds implied | 29% EV

Álvarez looks overpriced here given his Champions League shot volume. He’s gone over this line in 9 of his last 12 UCL games, his recent numbers in all competitions read 5, 7, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 4, 2, 4, 4. Importantly, he was rested against Barcelona last time out, so should be fresh and heavily involved here. At 12/5, this stands out as one of the stronger value angles.

PSG vs Liverpool

Tip 2 - Mohamed Salah – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds: 10/13 with 10Bet
Worst odds: 4/9

67.7% AI probability | 56.53% Odds implied | 19.76% EV

This price feels too big for a player with Salah’s shooting profile. His recent numbers — 4, 7, 0, 1, 2, 3, 0, 5, 4, 5, 2, 4, 3, 2 — underline how regularly he gets attempts away. While Liverpool haven’t been at their best recently, European nights are a different story, and with their backs against the wall, expect Salah to be central to everything attacking and to generate enough volume to clear this line.

Tip - Dominik Szobozlai - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds: 5/4 with betway
Worst odds: 8/13

57.7% AI probability | 46.5% Odds implied | 24% EV

Sticking with the Liverpool shots angle, Dominik Szobozlai has been Liverpool's catalyst going forward this season - especially in the Champions League. 

Szobozlai has had over 1.5 shots in 8/10 UCL appearances this season and if Liverpool are going to score tonight the Hungarian is top of the list of players who would be contributing. 

Tip - Marcos Llorente - To Be Shown a Card - 1pt

Best odds: 11/4 with Sky Bet / Paddy Power
Worst odds: 21/10

30% AI probability | 24% Odds implied | 20% EV

Whether Marcos Llorente starts on the right of midfield, right-back, or central midfield, he will be drawn into contests most likely resulting in fouls. 

Llorente could come run into the likes of Pedri, Casado, Bernal, Fermin Lopez, Rashford, and Cancelo, all players with profiles of being fouled. 

In such a high-stakes match up for Atleti and with a player who wears his heart on his sleeve, there are multiple angles into the referee's book for Marcos Llorente on Wednesday evening.