Champions League returns for another season as Real Madrid host Inter in GW 1 of the European Tournament.
The Champions League returns this week, and there is no shortage of intrigue around Tuesday night's meeting between Real Madrid and Inter at the Santiago Bernabéu.
Real Madrid begin their European campaign at home, while Inter face one of the toughest possible opening assignments as they travel to Spain for their first league-phase fixture. The match kicks off at 20:00 BST on Tuesday, September 8.
Who is the Favourite to Win in Real Madrid v Inter?
According to latest odds, Real Madrid are the betting favourites to win at the Santiago Bernabéu, priced around 8/13. The draw is available at 7/2, while Inter Milan are out at 4/1.
Real Madrid are the clear favourites to win. Based on current market odds, their implied win probability sits around 62%, with Inter Milan roughly 20% and the draw about 22%.
Real Madrid v Inter Best Betting Tip
Best Bet: Kylian Mbappé Over 2.5 Shots On Target
Odds: 11/10 (BetVictor)
Stake: 1pt
Kylian Mbappé over 2.5 shots on target immediately stands out given how consistently the Real Madrid forward has been testing goalkeepers. He has cleared this line in two of his three games this season, and his wider numbers show just how much volume he can generate when playing at the Bernabéu.
Mbappé's shots on target across his last 12 matches read 4, 4, 7, 3, 2, 0, 1, 4, 2, 2, 4 and 3, meaning he has produced three or more efforts on target in half of those appearances.
The home numbers are even more encouraging. His last six starts at the Bernabéu have produced 4, 7, 2, 4, 2 and 4 shots on target, with five of those six games seeing him land at least two.
There is also a useful international sample behind the bet, with Mbappé's shots on target at the World Cup reading 4, 0, 2, 4, 4, 2, 3 and 4.
With Mbappé averaging 2.97 shots on target per 90 across his last 15 games, 11/10 for him to register three or more on target looks like a price worth taking.
Real Madrid v Inter Bet Builder Tip
Here's our Real Madrid v Inter Bet Builder Tip for tomorrow's game:
- Yes - Both Teams To Score
- Manuel Akanji Over 1.5 Tackles
- Yann Aurel Bisseck Over 0.5 Fouls
- Kylian Mbappé Over 2.5 Shots On Target
Best odds: 6/1 (SpreadEx)
Yes - Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score is the starting point for this builder, with eight of Inter's last 10 matches seeing both sides find the net.
Real Madrid have also shown some vulnerability at the back, conceding in three of their four games this season, which makes it difficult to completely trust them to keep Inter out at home.
Given Inter's recent BTTS trend and Madrid's early-season defensive record, there is plenty of reason to expect both sides to have their moments in what should be an entertaining Champions League opener.
Manuel Akanji Over 1.5 Tackles
Manuel Akanji is another player whose numbers make the line appealing. His tackle counts across his last 11 games read 4, 1, 0, 2, 1, 2, 1, 0, 1, 3 and 2, giving him plenty of recent examples of clearing the 1.5 mark.
He averaged 1.7 tackles per game in Serie A last season, so the two-tackle requirement is not particularly demanding for a defender who should have plenty of work to do against Real Madrid's attack.
Against a Madrid side expected to have plenty of the ball and plenty of runners moving around the Inter defence, Akanji should have opportunities to get involved.
Yann Aurel Bisseck Over 0.5 Fouls
Yann Aurel Bisseck only needs to commit one foul for this leg to land, and his away record gives us plenty of encouragement.
The Inter defender averaged 0.9 fouls per game in Serie A last season, while his foul count across his last 15 away appearances reads 1, 2, 0, 1, 1, 0, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 and 2.
That means Bisseck has committed at least one foul in 12 of those 15 away games, an 80% hit rate. Against a Real Madrid attack packed with players capable of taking defenders on and forcing them into difficult decisions, this looks a sensible addition to the builder.
Kylian Mbappé Over 2.5 Shots On Target
We finish with our strongest individual angle and the same selection as the best bet.
Mbappé has recorded 4, 4, 7, 3, 2, 0, 1, 4, 2, 2, 4 and 3 shots on target across his last 12 matches, while his last six home starts have produced 4, 7, 2, 4, 2 and 4.
His 2.97 shots on target per 90 across his last 15 games makes three on target a realistic target, particularly with the Bernabéu behind him.
Real Madrid v Inter Player Prop Bet
Best Bet: Federico Dimarco - Over 1.5 Shots
Odds: 11/10 (bet365)
Stake: 1pt
Federico Dimarco over 1.5 shots is an interesting alternative for those looking away from the headline forwards. The Inter wing-back has cleared this line in three of his last four games, while his last 10 shot totals read 4, 1, 0, 2, 2, 2, 4, 1, 5 and 3.
That is a sizeable amount of attacking volume for a player operating from the flank, and his wider numbers reinforce the trend. Dimarco has averaged 2.80 shots per 90 across his last 13 appearances, meaning he is regularly getting into positions where he can test the goalkeeper.
With Inter likely to have to work hard to create chances at the Bernabéu, Dimarco's willingness to get forward and shoot could make him a useful outlet, particularly if Madrid's defensive shape leaves space for him to exploit from the left.
