EV Eagle shares five top betting angles for Wednesday’s Champions League action.
Wednesday brings Bayern Munich v Arsenal, Real Madrid v RB Leipzig, Real Betis v Feyenoord and Como v Manchester United. Oddschecker’s EV Eagle has picked out five selections that offer positive expected value.
The EV Eagle model compares its own estimate of how likely an outcome is with the probability implied by the bookmakers’ odds, and it highlights the bets where the model gives a better chance than the price suggests. We’ve selected five of its best value bets for Wednesday, 21 October, covering anytime goals, shots on target and fouls committed.
EV Eagle’s Best Value Bets for Wednesday
| EV Eagle Tips | Best Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Abde Ezzalzouli - Anytime Goalscorer | 5/2 | Paddy Power |
| Bryan Mbeumo - Anytime Goalscorer | 5/2 | Ladbrokes |
| Harry Kane - Over 1.5 Shots on Target | 11/10 | Coral |
| Charles Vanhoutte - Over 1.5 Fouls | 21/20 | Coral |
| Antonio Nusa - Over 0.5 Shots on Target | 4/11 | Skybet |
Odds last updated at 12PM Wednesday, 21st October 2026.
TIP 1: Abde Ezzalzouli Anytime Goalscorer vs Feyenoord
Best odds of 5/2 with Paddy Power.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 37.0%
- Odds Implied: 28.6%
- Expected Value: 29.5%
Abde Ezzalzouli has scored four goals in his last five club starts, finding the net against Getafe, Osasuna, Porto and Barcelona. He scored once from five attempts, two of them on target, in Betis’ 3-2 win over Porto last Wednesday, then scored again against Barcelona on Saturday.
He has three goals from nine shots in six La Liga appearances this season, and he scored when Betis beat Feyenoord 2-1 in the Europa League in January.
The opposition is the bigger factor. Feyenoord have conceded seven goals in their opening two Champions League games, losing 5-1 to Barcelona and then beating Como 3-2. They have also conceded in each of their last 21 European away matches, while Betis have scored at least twice in ten consecutive home European fixtures.
TIP 2: Bryan Mbeumo Anytime Goalscorer vs Como
Best odds of 5/2 with Ladbrokes.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 33.6%
- Odds Implied: 28.6%
- Expected Value: 17.6%
Bryan Mbeumo has scored four goals in ten appearances this season, including in consecutive Premier League games against Tottenham and Leeds. He opened the scoring from close range in Sunday’s 1-1 draw with Leeds, taking three shots, two on target.
The underlying numbers back him up. Mbeumo has taken seven shots in his last three appearances, five of them on target, for 1.19 expected goals.
Como have conceded four goals in their opening two Champions League games, including three against Feyenoord last Wednesday. Cesc Fàbregas’ side have also allowed opponents an average of 14.1 shots per game over their last eight matches.
With Benjamin Šeško injured, Mbeumo is expected to lead United’s attack. He has started all ten of their competitive games under Michael Carrick.
TIP 3: Harry Kane Over 1.5 Shots on Target vs Arsenal
Best odds of 11/10.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 52.9%
- Odds Implied: 47.6%
- Expected Value: 11.1%
Harry Kane has had two or more shots on target in five of his last ten appearances, including both of Bayern’s Champions League games this season. He registered two on target from six shots against Bodø/Glimt, then four from five against Viking last week, scoring twice in the 3-3 draw.
His domestic numbers are just as strong. He has 29 shots in six Bundesliga appearances, nine of them on target, an average of 4.8 attempts per game. Against Leipzig on Saturday he had three shots on target from five attempts in just 58 minutes of a 6-1 win.
Bayern have scored 18 goals in their opening three Bundesliga home matches. Arsenal have kept clean sheets in both Champions League games this season, but they will be without William Saliba.
TIP 4: Charles Vanhoutte Over 1.5 Fouls vs Real Betis
Best odds of 21/20 with Coral.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 58.8%
- Odds Implied: 48.8%
- Expected Value: 20.5%
Charles Vanhoutte has committed two or more fouls in both of his Champions League appearances this season. He made two against Barcelona and four in the 3-2 win over Como. On Saturday he committed three fouls in 64 minutes of a 4-3 win over Telstar.
His wider numbers give a lower baseline. Vanhoutte has committed 14 fouls across ten qualifying appearances, 1.4 per game, the highest among Feyenoord’s midfielders. The case rests on the matchup.
Betis have drawn an average of 14.6 fouls per home match over their last five competitive games, including 13 against Porto in the last round. Isco and Abde Ezzalzouli have each drawn 12 fouls over their last ten recorded appearances, and Vanhoutte is expected to face both in Feyenoord’s central midfield.
TIP 5: Antonio Nusa Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Real Madrid
Best odds of 1/1 with Betfair.
1pt advised stake.
- AI Probability: 58.0%
- Odds Implied: 50.0%
- Expected Value: 16.0%
Antonio Nusa has registered at least one shot on target in seven of his last ten appearances, including both Champions League games this season. He had two on target from four attempts against Como and one from three against PSV Eindhoven last Tuesday.
In the Bundesliga he has 13 shots in six appearances, six of them on target, along with three goals and three assists. He is a regular threat for Leipzig.
Real Madrid have allowed opponents an average of 5.1 shots on target per game over their last ten fixtures. That includes seven in each of their Champions League matches against Inter and Roma, and five against Sevilla on Sunday. Leipzig travel to the Bernabéu as underdogs, which should give Nusa chances on the break.
