EV Eagle has selected three card betting tips for Tuesday's opening round of UCL matches.
EV Eagle shares three standout card betting tips for Tuesday's Champions League action, with three defenders and their disciplinary records offering some appealing Positive EV opportunities.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they are essentially putting a price on how likely they think an outcome is. The key for value bettors is finding situations where that price does not quite match the true probability of something happening.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available to Oddschecker+ subscribers, uses advanced AI to run 100 million projections every week while tracking 125 million live price changes each day. By doing so, it can spot bets where the probability of an outcome landing is higher than the bookmaker's odds suggest.
EV Eagle's 3 Tuesday selections:
- Pape Habib Gueye to be shown a card - 1pt
- Alberto Costa to be shown a card - 0.75pt
- Manuel Akanji to be shown a card - 0.75pt
TIP 1: Pape Habib Gueye - To Be Shown A Card - 1pt
Best odds of 23/10 at Betway at the time of writing.
Pape Habib Gueye to be shown a card looks an interesting price when you dig into his recent away numbers, with the midfielder having committed at least one foul in seven of his last 10 matches on the road.
His foul counts across that run read 2, 1, 1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 3, 1 and 3, while he has also been booked twice during that period. There is therefore a clear history of Gueye getting himself involved in situations that can attract the referee's attention, particularly when the game becomes more physical.
The 23/10 price gives us plenty to work with, and with Tuesday's Champions League action likely to bring a higher intensity than the average domestic fixture, Gueye looks worth considering in the card market.
TIP 2: Alberto Costa - To Be Shown A Card - 0.75pt
Best odds of 31/10 at PricedUp at the time of writing.
Alberto Costa is another defender whose recent foul numbers immediately stand out, averaging a stunning 2.5 fouls committed per game this season.
His foul count in his last 10 games reads 2, 6, 2, 3, 2, 4, 2, 3, 1 and 2, meaning he has committed at least two fouls in nine of those 10 matches. That is a remarkable level of consistency for a player being offered at 31/10 to be booked.
Costa also picked up seven cards last season, so there is plenty of evidence that his aggressive approach can translate into disciplinary action.
The opposition only adds to the appeal, with Costa set to come up against an attack featuring players such as Jérémy Doku and Antoine Semenyo, both of whom are capable of winning fouls through their pace, direct running and willingness to take defenders on.
At 31/10, Costa looks overpriced given both his current foul volume and his previous disciplinary record.
TIP 3: Manuel Akanji - To Be Shown A Card - 0.75pt
Best odds of 4/1 at 10bet at the time of writing.
Manuel Akanji is the biggest price of the three selections, with 10bet offering 4/1 on the Manchester City defender to be shown a card.
Akanji has been booked in two of his last four away games and has picked up two yellow cards across his last nine matches overall, giving us a reasonable recent sample to work with.
The attacking talent he will face also makes this an appealing matchup from a card perspective. Vinicius Junior has averaged 3.29 fouls won per 90 minutes across his last 14 matches, while Jude Bellingham has averaged 2.79 fouls won per 90 across his last 12.
Kylian Mbappe's figure is lower at 1.07 fouls won per 90 across his last 12 matches, but the combined threat of three players who can carry the ball into dangerous areas means Akanji could be forced into several difficult defensive situations.
At 4/1, there is enough in both Akanji's recent booking record and the attacking quality he is likely to face to make this a tempting card play.
