How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Rio Ngumoha – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - VOID
Dominik Szoboszlai – Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 1pt - WON @ 11/10
Dominic Solanke – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - VOID
FC Barcelona – To Win vs Newcastle - 1pt - LOST 
Lamine Yamal – Anytime Goalscorer - 1pt - WON @ 2/1

Running P/L: +20pts

Leverkusen vs Arsenal

Tip 1: Aleix Garcia - Over 0.5 Fouls - 1pt

Best odds of 1/1 at bet365 while publishing.

Aleix García has exceeded 0.5 fouls in 6 of his last 10 games, showing a consistent tendency to commit at least one foul during matches. With his role often involving pressing and disrupting opposition play in midfield, he regularly gets involved in physical duels. The EV Eagle AI projects 0.7 fouls for this matchup, indicating a strong chance he lands at least one. With a positive EV of 9%, the numbers suggest this line carries some value.

PSG vs Chelsea

Tip 2: Moises Caicedo - Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt

Best odds of 21/20 at Coral while publishing.

Moisés Caicedo continues to be one of the most active defensive midfielders when it comes to challenges. He has exceeded 1.5 fouls in 6 of his last 10 games and in 4 of his last 5 away games, highlighting how often he disrupts play when operating away from home. The EV Eagle AI probability stands at 66%, compared to an implied probability of 49%, creating a strong EV of 35%, which points to significant betting value.

Tip 3: Vitinha - Over 0.5 Fouls - 1pt

Best odds of 1/1 at BetMGM UK while publishing.

Vitinha has exceeded 0.5 fouls in 5 of his last 7 games, reflecting his increasing involvement in midfield battles. Although not primarily a defensive player, his pressing and recovery work often leads to fouls as he tries to break up opposition transitions. The EV Eagle AI probability is 54%, while the implied probability sits at 48%, resulting in a positive EV of 13% for this selection.

Real Madrid vs Man City

Tip 4: Arda Guler - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds of 23/20 at 10bet while publishing.

Arda Güler has exceeded 1.5 shots in 6 of his last 10 games and in 4 of his last 6 matches, showing a clear willingness to test the goalkeeper whenever he gets space around the box. Operating in advanced areas and often cutting inside to shoot, he tends to accumulate attempts quickly. The EV Eagle AI probability is 50%, compared with an implied probability of 46%, giving the play a positive EV of 6%.

Bodo Glimt vs Sporting

Tip 5: Jens Hauge - Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt

Best odds of 4/5 at PricedUp while publishing.

Jens Petter Hauge has exceeded 0.5 shots on target in 7 of his last 10 games and in 4 of his last 5 matches, underlining how frequently he forces saves when he gets chances in attacking areas. His direct style and willingness to shoot when cutting in from wide positions contribute to these numbers. The EV Eagle AI probability is 76%, while the implied probability is 56%, producing a strong EV of 36%, making it one of the standout value legs in the selections.