Newcastle host Qarabag FK in the Champions League knockout second leg at St. James' Park. The Magpies hold a commanding first-leg lead, eyeing comfortable qualification to the next round.
| Tournament: | Champions League |
|---|---|
| Venue: | St. James' Park, Newcastle |
| Date: | 24.02.2026 |
| Time: | 20:00 GMT |
Newcastle vs Qarabag FK Form and Head to Head
The Magpies come into this fixture on the back of a 2-1 Premier League defeat to Manchester City, a result that snapped a three-game winning streak across all competitions. Prior to that, Newcastle secured a stunning 6-1 victory over Qarabag FK in the first leg of this Champions League tie, following impressive 3-1 and 2-1 away wins against Aston Villa in the FA Cup and Tottenham in the Premier League, respectively. Their form has been somewhat mixed recently, with two losses at home in the Premier League and League Cup preceding their current run, highlighting a slight inconsistency at St. James' Park.
Qarabag FK's last competitive outing was the heavy 6-1 home defeat to Newcastle in the Champions League first leg. Their league fixture against FK Neftchi was postponed. Before the Champions League encounter, the Azerbaijani side had enjoyed a strong run in their domestic league, securing consecutive victories against Imisli FK and Shamakhi FK. However, their Champions League form has been less stellar, marked by another significant 6-0 loss away to Liverpool earlier in the campaign.
The only previous meeting between these two sides was last week's Champions League first leg, where Newcastle emerged as dominant 6-1 victors away from home. This result firmly places the Magpies in the driving seat for progression in the tournament.
Who is the Betting Favourite in Newcastle vs Qarabag FK?
Newcastle are overwhelming favourites to beat FK Qarabag at St James' Park, with the latest odds implying roughly an 85% chance of a home win. Qarabag are given around a 5% chance of an upset in this Champions League playoff second leg, where Newcastle lead 6-1 on aggregate.
| Match Result | Best Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 1/6 | Coral |
| FK Qarabag | 18/1 | AK Bets |
| Draw | 9/1 | Skybet |
Odds last updated at 2:30PM Tuesday, 24th February.
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Newcastle vs Qarabag FK Team News
Newcastle faces a significant injury crisis ahead of the home leg. Lewis Miley, Tino Livramento, Fabian Schär, Bruno Guimarães, Yoane Wissa, and Sven Botman are all sidelined with injuries. Additionally, Malick Thiaw is unavailable due to suspension after picking up a yellow card in the first leg. Manager Eddie Howe will likely have to rotate his squad given the comfortable aggregate lead and the sheer number of absentees.
Qarabag FK's squad issues are less severe, but still notable. Bahlul Mustafazada and Shakhruddin Mahammadaliyev are both listed as doubtful, which could further weaken their defensive options. These potential absences are particularly concerning for a side that has conceded six goals in each of their last two Champions League matches.
Newcastle vs Qarabag FK Probable Lineups
Newcastle (4-3-3): Pope; Hall, Murphy, Burn, Trippier; Ramsey, Tonali, Joelinton; Gordon, Woltemade, Barnes
Qarabag FK (4-2-3-1): Kochalski; Cafarquliyev, Medina, Hüseynov, Silva; Jankovic, Bicalho; Zoubir, Montiel, Andrade; Durán
Lineups powered by WhoScored.
Newcastle vs Qarabag FK Match Prediction
Newcastle United FC return to Tyneside with one foot already in the next round after last week’s stunning 6-1 win in Azerbaijan. Even with the tie largely settled, they will want a professional outing at home, especially after a disappointing weekend league result. The hosts are expected to lean on their wide attacking play, through-ball creation, and clinical finishing to keep pressure on the visitors.
For Qarabag FK, overturning a five-goal deficit feels almost impossible at this stage of the competition. Their defensive record against strong attacking sides has been shaky, particularly when facing wing-based attacks, set pieces, and individual defensive lapses. While they can be dangerous on the break through players like Camilo Durán, sustained control against high-press opponents has been a challenge.
With the first-leg cushion and overall squad quality, Newcastle should still have enough to secure a comfortable home result.
Prediction: Newcastle 3-1 Qarabag FK
Newcastle vs Qarabag FK Match Stat Trends
Our EV Eagle has picked out five trending player stats for Newcastle vs Qarabag FK.
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Joelinton has failed to exceed 0.5 Shots On Target in 4 of their last 5 games.
Best odds of 19/20 at 10bet while publishing.
Harvey Barnes has exceeded 0.5 Tackles in 4 of their last 5 games.
Best odds fo 19/20 at BetVictor while publishing.
There have been 10+ shots on target in 5 of Qarabag FK's last 5 matches in Champions League.
Best odds of 8/11 at BetVictor while publishing.
Anthony Gordon has scored in 3 of their last 4 apps in Champions League.
Best odds of 1/1 at bet365 while publishing.
Camilo Durán has recorded 1+ shots on target in 4 of their last 5 apps in Champions League.
Best odds of 5/4 at William Hill while publishing.
Newcastle vs Qarabag FK Bet Builder Tip
Our Newcastle vs Qarabag FK Bet Builder Tip is K Medina to make over 2.5 tackles, match shots on target to exceed 9.5, no BTTS, and D Burn to land at least one shot in the match.
Best odds of 8/1 available at SpreadEx at the time of publishing.
K. Medina Over 2.5 Tackles
K Medina has absolutely smashed this line, clearing it in all of his last four outings. The energy he brings in midfield is relentless, and his recent tackle sequence reads 3,3,3,3,1,2. That works out to around 2.5 tackles per game, but what matters more is the consistency. In high-intensity games like this second leg, he is very likely to stay busy defensively and push beyond the 2.5 mark again.
Over 9.5 - Match Shots On Target
Games involving Newcastle United FC and Qarabag FK have recently leaned toward open, attacking football. This line has landed in four of the last five meetings involving these sides.
Newcastle tend to test the goalkeeper often at home, averaging over 7 shots on target per match at St James’ Park. Meanwhile, Qarabag need goals to even think about a comeback, so they are unlikely to sit quietly. Even though the tie is basically decided, the attacking intent from both teams should keep the shot count ticking toward 10.
No - Both Teams To Score
Newcastle carry a strong defensive reputation in European group-stage football, conceding just two goals across four home Champions League matches. Qarabag’s recent history in England hasn’t been kind, including a heavy defeat on their last visit.
With the aggregate score already heavily tilted and the Magpies comfortable managing the game, this could be one of those matches where one team dominates while keeping a clean sheet.
D. Burn Over 0.5 - Shots
Dan Burn is a real aerial threat on set pieces for Newcastle United FC. He averages about one shot per Champions League game this season.
Looking at his last six outings, his shot numbers read 2,0,0,1,2,3. That means he has hit at least one shot in four of those six matches. Expect Newcastle to keep feeding corners and crosses toward him, giving him a good chance to nod at goal once or twice.
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