My, oh my, football can be cruel.

Leeds United look to have run out of steam at the worst possible time—much to the glee of the pre-season Bielsa-doubters—and four defeats from their last seven games has surely condemned then to the Championship play-offs.

As a Brighton fan, I say this from experience: mentally recovering for a play-off campaign, after getting so close to automatic promotion, is fiendishly difficult. There’s a reason why so many third-place teams fail to win the play-offs.

With Sheffield United looking set to seal promotion against Ipswich on Saturday, Leeds prepare for yet another kick to the balls against an Aston Villa side who have won a record 10 matches in-a-row.

Leeds’ performance during their 2-0 defeat at Brentford on Monday didn’t scream of a side brimming with confidence; Villa, on the other hand, are playing with a scary level of confidence and panache.

At 16/5, Aston Villa to beat Leeds United is an enormous price, and one well worth packing.

Aston Villa - 2pts @ 16/5

Considering he’s scored in four of Villa’s last 10 matches—and that he’s just really, really good—it does seems a little insulting that Jack Grealish is 21/5 to score at any time against Leeds.

Villa’s talisman is a big reason for their upturn in form, and he’ll be licking his lips at the prospect of denting Leeds’ confidence further – particularly because they’ve kept just three clean sheets in their last 12 at Elland Road.

Grealish AGS - 1pt @ 21/5

While I do believe Villa will win, this could be quite a slow burner.

Leeds have gone into half-time level in 11 of their 22 home matches to date, while 13 of Villa’s 22 on the road have seen a stalemate at the break.

With these stats in mind, 11/8 for a half-time draw looks fairly generous, so that’ll be my final tip.

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Draw Half-Time - 1pt @ 11/8