The EV Eagle has picked out five value bets for Tuesday's Championship and Champions League action.
How does the EV Eagle work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Ismaëlo Ganiou Over 0.5 Shots vs Sporting CP
Best odds of 1/1 with Paddy Power when writing. 1pt stake advised.
Lens defender Ismaëlo Ganiou has developed an impressive shooting record for a centre-back, registering at least one shot in nine of his last ten appearances across all competitions.
The 21-year-old has averaged 1 shot per game across 26 appearances for Lens. He has also registered a shot in each of his three Ligue 1 appearances this campaign against Auxerre, Strasbourg and Lorient.
The matchup against Sporting CP offers further encouragement. The Portuguese side have conceded 15 shots in each of their last two domestic matches against Braga and Arouca, while Galatasaray managed ten attempts against them in their opening Champions League fixture.
Lens are averaging an impressive 16.6 shots per home game this season, suggesting Ganiou could have opportunities to contribute, particularly from attacking set pieces, where his aerial ability makes him a potential threat.
With only one attempt required, Ganiou's consistent shooting record makes the 1/1 available with Paddy Power an appealing price. Oddschecker's EV model gives the selection a 62.2% probability of landing, comfortably above the 50% implied by the odds.
Danijel Šturm Over 2.5 Shots vs Sabah
Best odds of 23/20 with PricedUp/Star Sports when writing. 1pt stake advised.
Slavia Prague winger Danijel Šturm will be looking to build on an impressive Champions League opener when his side travel to Azerbaijan to face Sabah on Tuesday evening.
The Slovenian international was Slavia's standout performer in their 3-2 defeat against Lens, scoring both goals from four shots.
Šturm has also demonstrated a consistent willingness to shoot domestically, registering 15 shots across nine Czech league appearances this season, averaging 2.34 per 90 minutes.
The opposition also offers encouragement. Sabah were comprehensively beaten 4-0 by Manchester United in their Champions League opener, conceding 21 shots, including ten on target. That defensive vulnerability could provide opportunities for Slavia's attacking players to test goalkeeper Stas Pokatilov.
With four shots and two goals in his opening Champions League appearance, Šturm has already demonstrated his ability to make an impact at this level.
Oddschecker's EV model gives Šturm a 54% probability of registering at least three shots against Sabah, compared with the 46.5% implied by the 23/20 odds.
Camiel Neghli Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Swansea
Best odds of 21/20 with Coral/Ladbrokes when writing. 1pt stake advised.
Millwall midfielder Camiel Neghli has been enjoying an excellent start to the Championship season, and his recent shooting consistency makes him an appealing selection to register a shot on target against Swansea.
The 24-year-old has recorded at least one shot on target in six of his last ten appearances, including each of his last five Championship matches.
Neghli has registered 17 shots in nine league appearances this season, with seven finding the target. That represents an average of 1.99 shots and 0.82 shots on target per 90 minutes.
His recent form has been particularly impressive, scoring three goals in his last five Championship appearances. Most recently, he scored Millwall's winner against Preston on Saturday, registering two shots on target in the 1-0 victory.
Swansea's defensive record is impressive, with the Championship leaders conceding just seven goals in nine matches. However, their opponents have registered 15 shots on target across their last three league fixtures, including six for Burnley, four for Lincoln and five for Norwich.
Neghli's advanced attacking role under Alex Neil should provide further opportunities to test Swansea goalkeeper Lawrence Vigouroux.
With a shot on target in five consecutive league matches, the 21/20 available with Coral/Ladbrokes looks an attractive price. Oddschecker's EV model gives Neghli a 60.2% probability of landing the selection, comfortably above the 48.8% implied by the odds.
Zeki Amdouni Anytime Goalscorer vs Charlton
Best odds of 6/4 with Sky Bet when writing. 1pt stake advised.
Burnley forward Zeki Amdouni is enjoying an excellent run of goalscoring form heading into Tuesday's Championship meeting with Charlton at Turf Moor.
The Swiss international has scored three goals in his last four league starts, finding the net against Wrexham, Derby County and Watford.
Amdouni was particularly impressive in Burnley's emphatic 4-0 victory over Watford on Saturday, scoring after just 19 minutes and registering three shots, including two on target, before being substituted shortly after the hour mark.
His underlying shooting numbers are equally encouraging. Amdouni has registered 22 shots across nine Championship appearances this season, with eight finding the target. That represents an impressive average of four shots per 90 minutes.
Charlton have struggled defensively on their travels, conceding seven goals across their last two away matches, suffering a 4-0 defeat to Stoke before losing 3-1 against Cardiff.
The Addicks have also allowed opponents an average of 16.4 shots per game in the Championship this season, highlighting their vulnerability to attacking pressure.
With Amdouni leading Burnley's attacking threat and scoring in three of his last four starts, the 6/4 available with Sky Bet looks worth considering.
Antonio Nusa Anytime Goalscorer vs PSV
Best price of 12/5 with Coral/Ladbrokes. 0.75pt stake advised.
RB Leipzig winger Antonio Nusa has been in excellent goalscoring form at the Red Bull Arena this season, making him an appealing anytime goalscorer selection against PSV Eindhoven.
The Norwegian international has scored three goals in five Bundesliga appearances, finding the net in all three of Leipzig's home league matches against Borussia Mönchengladbach, Hamburg and Eintracht Frankfurt.
The 21-year-old has now contributed three goals and three assists in just five Bundesliga appearances, highlighting his importance to Leipzig's attack under Martin Demichelis.
His underlying attacking numbers also offer encouragement. Nusa has registered 12 shots in those five league appearances, averaging 2.66 attempts per 90 minutes.
PSV have conceded ten goals in their opening eight Eredivisie fixtures, keeping just one clean sheet. Their defensive record away from home is particularly concerning, with six goals conceded across four league matches on the road.
Leipzig, meanwhile, have scored 14 goals in just three Bundesliga home matches this campaign.
With Nusa scoring in all three of those fixtures, the 12/5 available with Coral looks an interesting price.
