EV Eagle has picked out five betting tips for a packed Good Friday of football action, offering plenty of value.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Tuesday's Results:
Tip 1: Samet Akaydin - 2+ Fouls - VOID
Tip 2: Arda Guler - To Score or Assist - 1pt - LOST
Tip 3: Yasin Ayari - 2+ Fouls Won - 1pt - LOST
Tip 4: Sandro Tonali - 2+ Shots - 1pt - LOST
Tip 5: Tomas Soucek - 1+ Shot on Target - 1pt - LOST
2025/26 Season P+L: +20.55pts
Middlesbrough vs Millwall
Tip 1: Luke Ayling - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt
Best odds of 5/6 at 888sport while publishing.
Luke Ayling has been a reliable source of shots from defence, hitting the target in 8 of his last 10 appearances. The experienced right-back has recorded at least one shot in four of his last five outings, with tallies of 2, 1, 2 and 2 in those games. Only one blank in his last five suggests this line represents strong value.
AI Probability 64% ; Implied Probability 55% ; EV 18%
Norwich vs Portsmouth
Tip 2: Ruairi McConville - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt
Best odds of 11/10 at Coral while publishing.
McConville has been a reliable option for this line, clearing 0.5 shots in seven of his last ten games. His recent form shows a bit of everything, with counts of 1, 2, 2, 0 and 1 in his last five. While he did draw a blank in one of those matches, he’s still hit the mark four times in that stretch, including a couple of games with multiple shots. He offers steady value and looks like a sensible pick.
AI Probability: 57% ; Implied Probability: 48% ; EV: 20%
QPR vs Watford
Tip 3: Edo Kayembe - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt
Best odds of 17/20 at Ladbrokes while publishing.
Kayembe has been one of the more attack-minded midfielders at this level, clearing 1.5 shots in 8 of his last 10 games; an impressive hit rate for a line that requires at least two attempts. His recent numbers of 2, 1, 3, 3 and 1 show that consistency, with three of those games comfortably going over the line.
Even in his quieter outings, he still tends to register at least one shot, giving him a strong baseline. With an 80% success rate over his recent matches, he stands out as a solid and reliable pick at this price.
AI Probability: 67% ; Implied Probability: 54% ; EV: 23%
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Colchester vs Oldham
Tip 4: Ellis Iandolo - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt
Best odds of 3/4 at Betway while publishing.
Iandolo boasts an impressive record, hitting this line in 8 of his last 10 games. His recent form tells a clear story: 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 4, 2, 1. While there were two blanks in that run, they came back-to-back and look more like a brief dip than any ongoing issue. Since then, he’s bounced back strongly, getting on the board in eight consecutive matches, including standout performances with totals of 4 and 2. At the 0.5 line, he’s difficult to overlook.
AI Probability: 68% ; Implied Probability: 57% ; EV: 19%.
Bristol Rovers vs Fleetwood
Tip 5: James Bolton - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt
Best odds of 20/23 at QuinnBet while publishing.
James Bolton completes the card with one of the most consistent recent records in the selection. His last six matches have all produced shots, with returns of 2, 1, 1, 1, 1 and 2, meaning he’s cleared the 0.5 line every time without a miss. His wider record of hitting the mark in 8 of his last 10 games backs up that consistency and shows it’s not just a short-term run of form. With a line as low as 0.5, Bolton stands out as the most reliable and straightforward pick of the group.
AI Probability: 63% ; Implied Probability: 53% ; EV: 18%.
