Europa League Betting Tips: EV Eagle's Best Bets for Thursday

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When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Dan Burn — To Be Shown A Card vs Barcelona — 1pt - 11/4 - LOST
Dan Burn — Over 1.5 Fouls vs Barcelona — 1pt - 29/20 - WON
Lamine Yamal — Anytime Goalscorer vs Newcastle — 1pt - 6/4 - WON
Dominik Szoboszlai — Anytime Goalscorer vs Galatasaray — 1pt - 5/2 - WON
Julián Álvarez — Anytime Goalscorer vs Tottenham — 1pt - 9/4 - WON
Atlético Madrid to Beat Tottenham (Win Market) — 1pt - 9/5 - LOST

2025/26 Season P+L: +23.4pts

Tip 1: Morgan Gibbs-White - Over 2.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds: 21/20 (Coral & Ladbrokes)
Worst odds: 3/10

This is a strong game-state angle: Forest need goals, and that naturally pushes their best attackers into higher shot volume territory across 90 minutes. 

Forest’s Europa League output also supports shooter props — they’ve been one of the more aggressive sides by shots on target per game in this competition, which helps individual overs for key attackers. 

AI probability: 54.2% | Implied probability: 47.6% | EV: 13.8%

Tip 2: Elliot Anderson - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds: 1/1 (betway & BetVictor)
Worst odds: 4/11

Anderson is not a pure “volume shooter” in league play, but he’s still logged 35 shots in the Premier League this season — and this is exactly the kind of match where his shot output can spike (because Forest must take risks).

If Forest dominate territory late while chasing the tie, you often see midfielders step into more speculative attempts and second-ball shots — which suits an Over 1.5 line. 

AI probability: 63.9% | Implied probability: 50% | EV: 27.8%

Tip 3: Endrick - To Score/Assist - 1pt

Best odds: 5/4 (Paddy Power)
Worst odds: 4/5

Endrick already delivered in the first leg, scoring in that 1–1 draw — and with the tie level, Lyon need their attacking focal points to step up again. 

His recent domestic form also shows consistent involvement (shots + assists), which is ideal for a Score/Assist market that can land via a secondary contribution. 

AI probability: 52% | Implied probability: 43.5% | EV: 19.7%

Tip 5: Morgan Rogers - Over 2.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds: 2/1 (SpreadEx & Sporting Index)
Worst odds: 1/2

Rogers has genuine volume upside — he’s posted 31 shots across his last 10 league matches, which is a clean “Over 2.5” signal on recent sample alone.

With Lille needing to chase the game state, Villa should see moments to break quickly, and Rogers is often the player arriving into finishing zones from the half-spaces. 

AI probability: 55.6% | Implied probability: 46.51% | EV: 19.54%

Tip 5: Donyell Malen - Over 1.5 Shots on Target - 1pt

Best odds: 6/4 (BetMGM)
Worst odds: 2/5

Malen is Roma’s standout “on-target” volume player — StatMuse has him at 1.83 shots on target per match (team-leading) in Serie A this season, and 13 SOT from 38 shots in league play. 

With the tie level, Roma should have to press for a win at some point — increasing the likelihood Malen gets multiple shots on frame rather than one-and-done attempts. 

AI probability: 55.9% | Implied probability: 50% | EV: 11.8%

Tip 6: Abde Ezzalzouli — To Score/Assist — 1pt

Best odds: 23/20 (BetMGM)
Worst odds: 4/6

Abde’s baseline output is strong: he’s credited with 5 goals and 5 assists in La Liga this season, plus Europa League goal output on wider stat logs — exactly what you want for a Score/Assist market. 

With Betis forced to chase the deficit, his chances of landing a decisive contribution rise because Betis should generate more box entries, shots and cutbacks than in a level game state. 

AI probability: 54.28% | Implied probability: 46.51% | EV: 16.7%