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When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Wednesday's Results:

Michael Olise - Over 3.5 Shots - 1pt - WON (26/25)
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to Score or Assist - 1pt - WON (23/20)
Michael Olise Anytime Goalscorer 1pt - LOST 
Ousmane Dembele Anytime Goalscorer - 0.75pts - WON (15/8)
Fabian Ruiz to Be Shown a Card - 0.75pts - LOST
Bet Builder - 0.25pts - LOST

2025/26 Season P+L: +25.22pts

Johan Manzambi - Over 2.5 Shots vs Braga (1pt)

Best odds of 11/10 with Coral/Ladbrokes when publishing.

Johan Manzambi is a lively Over 2.5 Shots angle as Freiburg trail Braga 2-1 from the first leg, meaning the Bundesliga side should be forced onto the front foot in tonight’s second leg.

His shot profile supports the play, recording 49 shots in 25 Bundesliga matches this season, working out at 2.24 shots per 90.

He also warmed up for this fixture with three shots and one on target in Freiburg’s 1-1 draw with Wolfsburg, showing his recent willingness to pull the trigger.

With Freiburg unbeaten at home in the Europa League this season and needing to overturn the deficit, Manzambi should have enough attacking responsibility to threaten the 3+ shots mark.

Youri Tielemans - 2+ Fouls Committed vs Forest (1pt)

Best odds of 9/5 with Sporting Index/Sporting Life when publishing.

Youri Tielemans looks a strong Over 1.5 Fouls pick after committing 2+ fouls in two consecutive matches, including the first leg against Nottingham Forest.

Villa trail 1-0 on aggregate after Chris Wood’s penalty at the City Ground, so Tielemans should be involved in a more aggressive midfield performance as Unai Emery’s side chase the tie.

Tielemans has already picked up two yellow cards in seven Europa League appearances, highlighting his willingness to get involved defensively.

With Forest in strong form and dangerous on the break, Tielemans should have enough transition-stopping and counter-pressing moments to clear the 2+ fouls line.

Vincenzo Grifo - To Score or Assist vs Braga (1pt)

Best odds of 5/4 with Paddy Power when publishing.

Vincenzo Grifo appeals in the To Score or Assist market after delivering a goal involvement in four of his previous seven starts, including Freiburg’s goal in the 2-1 first-leg defeat to Braga.

He remains one of Freiburg’s main attacking outlets, with seven Bundesliga goals and three assists this season.

The match script helps too, with Freiburg trailing 2-1 on aggregate and needing to attack at home, where they have won all six Europa League matches this season.

With Grifo expected to start on the left and handle a large share of Freiburg’s creative responsibility, he looks well placed to register another goal contribution.

Ollie Watkins - Anytime Goalscorer (1pt)

Best odds of 11/8 - widely available.

Ollie Watkins remains a strong Anytime Goalscorer angle despite a three-game blank, having scored in four of his previous five matches before that run.

He has also been a reliable European knockout threat, with all four of his Europa League goals this season coming in the knockout rounds.

Villa trail Forest 1-0 on aggregate, so the game state should force Unai Emery’s side to attack at Villa Park, where they have scored 15 Europa League goals this season.

Forest’s defensive record is strong, but that should only increase Villa’s reliance on their main striker to turn pressure into clear chances.

Matthias Ginter - To Be Shown a Card vs Braga (0.75pts)

Best odds of 13/2 with 10Bet when publishing.

Matthias Ginter looks an appealing To Be Shown a Card selection after picking up two yellows in his previous four appearances, and the price looks particularly interesting at a standout 13/2, compared to as short as 23/10 elsewhere.

The match context supports the angle, with Freiburg needing to overturn a 2-1 first-leg deficit and Braga likely to offer plenty of transition threat on the break.

Ginter is expected to start in Freiburg’s back line, and this tie has the makings of a physical, stop-start contest, with recent high foul and yellow-card counts for both sides.

With Freiburg forced to defend aggressively while chasing the game, Ginter’s recent discipline record makes the big price worth taking.