Crystal Palace travel to Lyon for matchday two of the Europa League league phase, with both sides on three points after winning their openers.
Palace beat Lech Poznan 4-0 at home on matchday one, while Lyon won 2-1 at Anderlecht and have scored seven goals in their last two home games at the Groupama Stadium. Palace are without Dean Henderson, Jean-Philippe Mateta, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Ben Chilwell and Chadi Riad, while Lyon expect Pavel Sulc to lead the line with Openda out again.
Who is the Favourite to Win in Lyon v Crystal Palace?
Lyon go into the game as slight favourites, priced at 23/20 to win with Betfred, while the draw is available at 11/4 and Palace are 21/10.
The margin between the two sides is narrow, and Sage's record against Lyon boss Paulo Fonseca (4-1 in the head-to-head) is one reason Palace remain a live price away from home.
Lyon v Crystal Palace Best Betting Tip
Best Bet: Jorgen Larsen - Anytime Goalscorer
Best odds: 17/10 (QuinnBet)
Stake: 1pt
Jørgen Strand Larsen to score anytime is our main selection. He has scored in three of his last five matches and he will lead Palace's attack with Mateta ruled out, and his shots on target this season read 2, 1, 2, 2, 2 and 0, which means he has hit the target in five of six games.
The context points towards goals. Both teams to score has hit in five of Lyon's last seven games, so clean sheets have been hard to come by, and over 2.5 goals has landed in four of Palace's last five matches and six of Lyon's last eight. With Sage also holding a 4-1 head-to-head record over Fonseca, Palace should create enough chances for their main striker to take one.
Lyon v Crystal Palace Bet Builder Tip
Here's our Lyon v Crystal Palace Bet Builder Tip for Thursday's game:
- Pavel Sulc Over 0.5 - Shots On Target
- Jorgen Larsen Over 2.5 - Shots
- Keito Nakamura Over 1.5 - Tackles
- Quinten Timber Over 1.5 - Tackles
Best available odds of 15/2 at bet365 while publishing.
Sulc has had one shot on target in two of his four starts this season, with his shots on target reading 1, 1, 0 and 0. That is not a long record, but he is expected to lead Lyon's attack with Openda out again, and he is the most dangerous attacker in the squad.
The central role should give him more chances close to goal against a Palace defence missing Tomiyasu, which gives him a route to at least one effort on target.
Strand Larsen's shots count this season reads 3, 1, 5, 3, 3 and 1, which means he has had at least three shots in four of six games and averages 2.7 per game. He has also scored in three of his last five matches.
With Mateta unavailable, Palace's attack runs through him, and a game in which Palace are expected to have spells of pressure against a Lyon side that concedes chances is the type of match where his shot count should reach the line.
Nakamura's tackles in his four matches so far this season read 0, 3, 3 and 1, and he averages 4.32 tackles per 90 minutes despite starting only one game. That rate suggests he does plenty of defensive work whenever he plays.
He has made three tackles in two of his four matches, so two or more is well within his range.
Timber has made two or more tackles in five of his six starts this season, with his tackles reading 2, 2, 2, 8, 2 and 1. He averages 3.29 tackles per 90 across the season, although that drops to 1.65 per 90 in his three away games.
The midfield should be evenly contested in Lyon, and Timber's season average suggests he will clear this line, even if the away rate is a reason to be cautious.
Lyon v Crystal Palace Player Card Tip
Best Bet: Quinten Timber - Player to be Carded
Best odds: 4/1 (Paddy Power)
Stake: 0.75pt
Quinten Timber is our card tip for today's game, with the Feyenoord midfielder potentially facing a busy afternoon in what is expected to be a closely contested encounter. With the battle for control of midfield likely to be crucial, Timber could find himself involved in plenty of physical duels, making tactical fouls and challenges as both sides look to gain the upper hand.
His disciplinary indicators make the 4/1 price worth considering. Timber's fouls committed across his last six appearances read 3, 2, 2, 0, 2 and 2, showing a consistent tendency to get involved in challenges. He averages 2.13 fouls committed per 90 minutes this season, rising to 2.20 per 90 in his three away games. That away record is particularly relevant if Feyenoord are forced to spend periods defending or breaking up the opposition's attacking play.
The nature of the fixture could further increase his involvement. If the contest remains tight, Timber may need to disrupt opposition moves, compete aggressively for second balls and track runners through the middle. Those situations can bring midfielders into the referee's book, particularly when challenges are used to stop promising attacks or prevent opponents from progressing through central areas.
Referee João Pinheiro, who averages 4.83 yellow cards per match, adds another encouraging factor to the selection.
