The EV Eagle picks out five value bets from Sunday's football action across Europe.
The EV Eagle has landed on Oddschecker!
In this new daily tipping series, the EV Eagle picks out their best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool, one of the premium tools available to Oddschecker+ subscribers.
In today's article, the Eagle has picked out five of the best EV bets from today's football.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Yesterdays Results:
Mats Wieffer - Over 1.5 Fouls vs Liverpool - 1pt - LOST
Virgil van Dijk Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt - LOST
Marc Cucurella - Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt WON @ 21/20
Ellis Simms - Over 2.5 Shots - 0.5pt - VOID
Running P/L: +5.36
Crystal Palace vs Man City
Tip 1: Jeremy Doku - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt
Best odds of 57/50 available at BetMGM
Jeremy Doku looks a strong pick to register over 1.5 shots, having recorded 3, 3, 0, 1 and 3 shots in his last five appearances. His confidence is growing with each performance, and against a Palace side missing their first-choice right-back, Doku should be encouraged to take on his man and shoot more often. With an AI probability of 71% against an implied 47%, the value is clear at best odds of 57/50 with BetMGM.
Tip 2: Tyrick Mitchell - Over 0.5 Fouls - 1.5pt
Best odds of 17/20 available at William Hill
Tyrick Mitchell to commit over 0.5 fouls also stands out. The Palace full-back has made three fouls across his last three games and is likely to be under constant pressure from City’s wide threats such as Doku, Bernardo Silva and Phil Foden. While Mitchell averages 0.5 fouls per game this season, that figure rises notably against top-six opposition, making this a solid supporting leg with a strong AI projection of 76%.
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Fiorentina vs Verona
Tip 3: Antoine Bernede - Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt
Best odds of 1/1 available at Sporting Index
Antoine Bernede looks a strong value play to commit over 1.5 fouls in this matchup. The young French defender averages a hefty 1.9 fouls per game this season, which already puts him comfortably above the required line. His recent form backs this up as well, having committed 1, 2, 5, 1, and 2 fouls in his last five matches, meaning this bet has landed in three of those games.
With EV Eagle backing it with AI probability of 68% against an implied probability of 50%, the selection offers clear positive expected value and shapes up as a reliable fouls angle for this week.
Bologna vs Juventus
Tip 4: Andrea Cambiaso - Over 0.5 Shots - 1.5pt
Best odds of 1/1 available at 10bet
Andrea Cambiaso looks a strong value pick to register over 0.5 shots, given his growing influence in Juventus’ attack. The left-back has been excellent going forward this season and comes into this game fresh off an assist in his last Champions League outing.
Cambiaso has cleared this line in three of his last five Serie A matches and has also done so in all seven of his Champions League appearances this season, underlining how regularly he gets into shooting positions. With Juventus encouraging their full-backs to push high, his AI-projected probability of 76 percent makes the odds particularly appealing.
Alaves vs Real Madrid
Tip 5: Aurelien Tchouameni - Over 1.5 Tackles - 1.5pt
Best odds of 8/11 available at bet365
Aurélien Tchouaméni is also well positioned to land over 1.5 tackles in what could be a high-intensity fixture for Real Madrid. With pressure mounting on the manager and little margin for error against Alavés, Madrid are expected to play with urgency, which should suit Tchouaméni’s ball-winning role in midfield.
He is averaging 1.9 tackles per game in the league this season and has hit this line in four of his last five matches, recording tackle counts of 3, 5, 0, 2 and 2. His consistent defensive output and involvement in breaking up play make this a solid addition to the bet builder.
