How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Folarin Balogun – Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 1pt - WON @ 22/25
Désiré Doué – Over 2.5 Shots - 1.5 pts - LOST
Eduardo Camavinga – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt - VOID
Matteo Prati – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt - LOST
Juan Jesus – Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt - LOST

Running P/L: +18.3pts

Athletic Bilbao vs Barcelona

Tip 1: Lamine Yamal - Over 3.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds of 23/20 at BetMGM UK while publishing.

Lamine Yamal has been playing with a lot of attacking freedom lately, and it shows in his shot numbers. He has exceeded 3.5 shots in 4 of his last 5 games, which is a strong indicator of how frequently he looks to test the goalkeeper or create chances for himself.

Lamine Yamal has exceeded 3.5 Shots in 4 of their last 5 games.
Lamine Yamal has exceeded 3.5 Shots in 4 of their last 5 AWAY games.

Last 5 League Games Shot Count: 6,3,7,4,5.
Last 5 League Games Shot Count Away from Home: 7,5,5,3,4

The away numbers are particularly encouraging. Yamal often becomes one of the main attacking outlets when his team plays on the road, which naturally leads to more attempts on goal. With multiple games producing five or more shots, the over line of 3.5 looks achievable if he maintains the same attacking intent.

Tip 2: Inaki Williams - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds of 41/50 at BetMGM UK while publishing.

Iñaki Williams has also been consistently involved in the final third, and the numbers suggest he regularly gets at least a couple of attempts during games. He has exceeded 1.5 shots in 4 of his last 5 matches, which already puts him close to the required line on a regular basis.

AI Probability 70%
Implied Probability 55%
EV 28%

Inaki Williams has exceeded 1.5 Shots in 4 of their last 5 games.
Last 5 games shot count: 1,2,3,2,2
Last 5 Starts Shot Count at Home: 3,2,5,3,1 (Averages 2.85 shots/90 at Home)

His home numbers stand out even more. Averaging 2.85 shots per 90 minutes at home suggests he plays a more aggressive role in front of his own crowd. With the EV Eagle AI probability (70%) sitting well above the implied probability (55%), and a positive EV of 28%, this line carries solid value if he continues to play in advanced positions.

Union Berlin vs Wolfsburg

Tip 3: Julian Ryerson - Over 1.5 Tackles

Best odds of 10/11 at bet365 while publishing.

Julian Ryerson has been fairly reliable when it comes to putting in defensive work, and the numbers support that. He has exceeded 1.5 tackles in 6 of his last 10 games, which suggests he regularly gets involved in challenges across the pitch. Looking at his recent outputs, the consistency becomes clearer.

Last 9 matches tackle count: 2,0,2,2,1,0,3,2,2

With multiple games hitting two or more tackles, Ryerson often finds himself in situations where he has to step in and break up play. If the match turns into a physical battle in wide areas, he should once again have opportunities to clear the 1.5 line.

Juventus vs Pisa

Tip 4: Antonio Caracciolo - Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt

Best odds of 8/11 at bet365 while publishing.

Antonio Caracciolo’s defensive involvement also makes this line worth considering. He has exceeded 1.5 tackles in 6 of his last 10 games, showing a steady pattern of contribution in defensive duels.

Last 5 matches tackle count: 2,4,2,1,4.
Averages 2.16 tackles/90 this season.
AI Probability 65%
Implied Probability 58%
EV 12%

His average of 2.16 tackles per 90 minutes indicates he regularly operates above the required mark. The AI probability sitting higher than the implied probability also suggests potential betting value, making this line appealing if his role in defence remains active during the match.

Toulouse vs Marseille

Tip 5: Mark McKenzie - Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt

Best odds of 23/20 at Ladbrokes while publishing.

Mark McKenzie has shown strong consistency in this market recently. He has exceeded 1.5 tackles in 7 of his last 10 games, which points to a defender who is frequently involved in stopping opposition attacks.

AI Probability 56%
Implied Probability 47%
EV 21%

Last 10 starts tackles count: 2,1,4,2,2,3,0,2,3,3
Last 5 starts at Home: 4,2,0,3,2

The recent numbers reinforce the trend, with several games comfortably clearing the line. His home record also stands out, with multiple matches producing three or more tackles. With the AI probability again higher than the implied probability, this line carries one of the stronger value indicators among the selections.