How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Saturday's Results: 

Mamadou Sangare - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - LOST
Ronald Araujo - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt - LOST
Jamie Leweling - Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt - VOID
Nicolo Fagioli - Over 0.5 Shots - 1.5pt - WON @ 8/11

2025/26 Season P+L: +22.05pts

Oviedo vs Sevilla

Tip 1: Ilyas Chaira - Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt

Best odds of 3/4 at BetMGM UK while publishing. 

This is about as solid as it gets for this market. Oussama Chaira has hit over 0.5 shots on target in 9 of his last 10 games, with returns of 1, 0, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2. That one blank is the only slip in an otherwise ultra-consistent run.

He is finding the target almost every time he steps on the pitch, which makes this a real banker leg for the bet builder.

AI Probability 64% ; Implied Probability 57% ; EV 12%

Alaves vs Osasuna

Tip 2: Victor Munoz - Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt

Best odds of 1/1 at BetMGM UK while publishing.

Victor Muñoz has hit the target in 6 of his last 10 games, but it is his recent form that really stands out. His last three matches have produced 4, 2 and 2 shots on target, showing he is right in the middle of a purple patch.

Up against fairly average opposition, there is a strong case for that run continuing here, making him a very appealing pick.

AI Probability 60% ; Implied Probability 44% ; EV 12%

Inter vs Roma

Tip 3: Manuel Akanji - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds of 1/1 at Ladbrokes while publishing.

Akanji keeps popping up in shooting areas and the numbers back it up. He has gone over 0.5 shots in 7 of his last 10 games and, more importantly, in each of his last five. Those recent returns read 2, 1, 1, 1 and 2. For a centre-back, that level of consistency is impressive and this current run makes the line look very achievable.

AI Probability 53% ; Implied Probability 50% ; EV 7%

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Tip 4: Bryan Cristante - Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt

Best odds of 11/10 at Coral while publishing.

Cristante plays on the edge and picks up fouls regularly. He has cleared this line in 5 of his last 10 games and averages 1.8 fouls per game across the season. Over his last five matches that number rises to 2.0, so he is actually becoming more involved physically as the season progresses. With that trend, getting to two fouls looks well within reach.

AI Probability 54% ; Implied Probability 48% ; EV 13%

AS Monaco vs Marseille

Tip 5: Folarin Balogun - Anytime Goalscorer - 0.75pt

Best odds available of 8/5 on AK Bets at the time of publishing.

This is the standout leg. Balogun is in red hot form, scoring in 6 of his last 7 games. He has 15 goals and 4 assists this season and comes up against a Marseille side without Mason Greenwood, which weakens them going forward. Monaco have won 5 of their last 6, so he is operating in a confident, attacking team that is creating chances for him consistently. Everything lines up for him to get on the scoresheet again.

AI Probability 47% ; Implied Probability 38% ; EV 21%