How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Sunderland v Burnley Bet Builder Tip - LOST

Running P/L: +21.8 pts

Hull City vs Watford

Tip 1: Marc Bola - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds of 3/4 available at Coral while publishing.

Marc Bola has been impressively active in attack recently, registering more than 0.5 shots in 8 of his last 10 games. His form on the road is also solid, with three of his last four away matches exceeding this mark. In his last five outings, Bola’s shot counts read 2, 2, 1, 2, 3, showing a consistent threat even in tight games.

With an AI probability of 66% against an implied probability of 57%, backing Bola to take at least one shot looks like a value-driven pick (EV 15%), especially in games where his team will be pushing forward.

Tip 2: Liam Miller - Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt

Best odds of 21/20 at BetMGM UK while publishing.

Liam Miller has been a regular source of scoring opportunities for Hull, exceeding 0.5 shots on target in four of his last five games. In that run, his individual contributions have been 0, 1, 1, 2, 1 SOT, reflecting both consistency and composure in front of goal.

Hull are in excellent form themselves, winning their last four games and scoring eight goals across those matches. With an AI probability of 59% versus an implied 49%, Miller represents a strong value bet (EV 22%), and his involvement should continue in Hull’s attacking moves.

Sheffield United vs Oxford United

Tip 3: Thomas Cannon - Over 0.5 SOT - 1pt

Best odds of 17/20 at BetMGM UK while publishing.

Thomas Cannon remains a key attacking outlet, exceeding 0.5 shots on target in six of his last ten games. Over his last five appearances, he’s managed 2, 0, 1, 1, 1 SOT, highlighting that he regularly finds the target and poses a consistent threat.

EV Eagle's AI probability of 77% compared to an implied 54% gives this pick a high expected value (EV 43%), making it one of the standout angles from Tuesday’s Championship action.