How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Friday's Results: 

Luke Ayling - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt - WON @ 5/6
Ruairi McConville - Over 0.5 Shots - VOID
Edo Kayembe - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - VOID
Ellis Iandolo - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt - WON @ 3/4 
James Bolton - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt - VOID

2025/26 Season P+L: +22.55pts

Lille vs Lens

Tip 1: Mamadou Sangare - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds of 21/20 at Unibet while publishing.

Sangare’s aggressive, trigger-happy style makes him a constant shooting outlet. He has recorded 2 or more shots in 7 of his last 10 matches, and notably, 4 of his last 5 outings have seen him attempt over 3.5 shots. With EV Eagle projections suggesting around 1.8 efforts in this match, he looks well placed to clear this line comfortably if he maintains his usual attacking intent.

AI Probability 53% ; Implied Probability 48% ; EV 11%

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona

Tip 2: Ronald Araujo - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds of 1/1 at Ladbrokes while publishing.

Araujo offers a surprising attacking threat, particularly given his defensive role. He has recorded at least one shot in each of his last five games, often getting forward for set pieces or trying his luck from range. His physical presence, especially in the air, combined with occasional forward runs, makes it highly likely he will register at least one attempt again here.

Stuttgart vs Dortmund

Tip 3: Jamie Leweling - Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt

Best odds of 11/10 at BetMGM UK while publishing.

Leweling has been sharp in the final third and is showing encouraging signs of efficiency. He has hit at least one shot on target in 4 of his last 5 appearances, underlining both his positioning and finishing ability. With projections suggesting close to one shot on target in this match, he looks a solid candidate to test the goalkeeper again.

AI Probability 61% ; Implied Probability 47% ; EV 28%

Verona vs Fiorentina

Tip 4: Nicolo Fagioli - Over 0.5 Shots - 1.5pt

Best odds of 8/11 at BetMGM UK while publishing.

Fagioli is not shy when it comes to taking chances from midfield and regularly looks to get involved in attacking phases. He has registered at least one shot in 7 of his last 10 matches, including 4 of his last 5. With expectations of around 1.4 efforts in this game, he should have enough opportunities to comfortably clear this line and contribute to the bet builder.

AI Probability 75% ; Implied Probability 57% ; EV 31%