How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Matty Cash - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt - WON
Harry Wilson - Over 0.5 Fouls - 1pt - LOST
Declan Rice - Over 1.5 Tackles - 1.5pt - LOST
Mateus Mane - Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 0.5pt - LOST
Lucas Pires - Over 0.5 Fouls - 1pt - LOST

Running P/L: +13.9 pts

Liverpool vs Man City

Tip 1: Antoine Semenyo - Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt

Best odds of 11/13 at Unibet while publishing.

Semenyo has been extremely reliable in creating scoring opportunities, hitting over 0.5 shots on target in 8 of his last 10 matches, including 4 of his last 5 away games. He has slotted seamlessly into Man City's lineup, injecting fresh attacking impetus into Guardiola's options. In his last 4 matches, Semenyo has taken 2,2,0,0 shots on target.

Liverpool have started to regain composure after recent difficulties, but their defence remains vulnerable. Semenyo’s speed could allow him to capitalize on any gaps and create clear shooting opportunities.

The AI assigns him a 59% probability, compared to a 54% implied chance, yielding a healthy 9% expected value. His attacking instincts and positioning make him an ideal candidate for on-target attempts.

Valencia vs Real Madrid

Tip 2: Kylian Mbappe - Anytime Goalscorer - 1.5pt

Best odds of 4/6 at bet365 while publishing.

Mbappe has been a constant threat in front of goal, scoring in 9 of his last 10 matches. The Madrid Talisman is leading the Golden Boot race with 22 goals this season. With Jude Bellingham sidelined, the responsibility to lead the attack falls largely on Mbappe. Facing a struggling Valencia side languishing at 17th in the table, he is well-placed to extend his impressive tally, already at 22 goals this season..

EV Eagle AI projects a 61% probability of him scoring anytime in this game, slightly above the implied market probability of 60%, giving a modest 2% expected value. His clinical finishing and consistency make him a reliable pick for goals.

 

Juventus vs Lazio

Tip 3: Danilo Cataldi - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds of 49/50 at Coral while publishing.

Cataldi has exceeded 0.5 shots in 7 of his last 10 games and in 2 of his last 3 away fixtures. In his last 5 matches, he has taken 2,2,0,2,0 shots. The Lazio captain also averages 1.1 shots per game this season, and is on penalty duties as well.

EV Eagle AI assigns him a 48.59% probability to hit this mark, slightly above the 46.51% implied probability, resulting in a 5% expected value. His role in the midfield and willingness to shoot from distance make him a consistent option for this leg.

 

Bayern Munich vs Hoffenheim

Tip 4: Dayot Upamecano - Over 0.5 Fouls - 1pt

Best odds of 5/6 at Coral while publishing.

Upamecano has exceeded 0.5 fouls in 8 of his last 10 games, with the AI projecting 0.9 fouls for this match. Known for his physicality, the French defender averages 0.8 fouls/game this season in the Bundesliga. His last 5 games foul counts are: 1,2,0,1,2.

With a 57.97% probability against a 55% implied line, the expected value sits at 6%. His aggressive defensive style and tendency to challenge attackers make this a dependable selection.

 

PSG vs Marseille

Tip 5: Timothy Weah - Over 0.5 Shots - 0.5pt

Best odds of 10/11 at BetMGM UK while publishing.

Weah has been active in attack, registering over 0.5 shots in 6 of his last 10 games, including 6 of his last 7 away matches. He has managed 2,0,2,2,2 shots in the last five games. PSG Left Back Nuno Mendes loves venturing forward as well, giving Weah an added chance of creating more shooting opportunities on the counter.

The AI anticipates him taking multiple attempts, making him a strong bet for players expected to test the goalkeeper regularly.