EV Eagle picks out five best betting tips for Sunday's football matches.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Yesterday's Results:
Lamine Yamal - Over 3.5 Shots - 1pt - LOST
Inaki Williams - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - WON @ 41/50
Julian Ryerson - Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt - LOST
Antonio Caracciolo - Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt - LOST
Mark McKenzie - Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt - WON @ 23/20
Running P/L: +17.3pts
Sevilla vs Vallecano
Tip 1: Cabrera Unai Lopez - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt
Best odds of 22/25 at BetMGM UK while publishing.
Unai López only needs a single attempt for this bet to land, and his recent numbers suggest that’s a pretty realistic expectation. He has managed at least one shot in 7 of his last 10 matches, which shows he regularly gets involved around the edge of the box. His away record makes the pick even stronger, with a shot in each of his last 5 away games.
Across the season he averages 1.64 shots per 90 minutes, so statistically he tends to clear this line more often than not. The model gives this outcome a 61% chance, while the odds suggest 53%, meaning the price slightly underrates how often he actually takes a shot.
Valencia vs Alaves
Tip 2: Largie Ramazani - Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1.0pt
Best odds of Evens at BetMGM UK while publishing.
Largie Ramazani has been doing a good job of making goalkeepers work recently. He has produced at least one shot on target in 5 of his last 7 games, which shows he’s regularly getting efforts on goal rather than just shooting from distance.
His home record adds another positive, clearing this line in 3 of his last 4 home matches. The numbers also back the bet from a value perspective, with the model giving it a 57% probability compared to 50% implied by the odds, suggesting there’s a small edge in backing him to hit the target again.
AC Milan vs Inter Milan
Tip 3: Federico Dimarco - Over 1.5 Shots - 1.5pt
Best odds of 10/11 at BetMGM UK while publishing.
Federico Dimarco is one of those players who isn’t shy about having a go at goal. Despite playing from a wide role, he often steps forward to take shots, especially from distance or set pieces. He has cleared the two-shot line in 8 of his last 10 matches, which is a strong trend.
His recent shot totals highlight just how active he’s been: 1, 5, 5, 3, and 4 in his last five appearances. Over the course of the season he averages 2.86 shots per 90 minutes, so the line of 1.5 looks well within reach if he plays his usual attacking role.
Monopoly Sports
Tip 4: Christian Pulisic - Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt
Best odds of 4/5 at BetMGM UK while publishing.
Christian Pulisic has been consistently testing goalkeepers, and that makes this line appealing. He has recorded at least one shot on target in 8 of his last 10 matches, which highlights how regularly he gets accurate efforts away.
His recent games show the same pattern, producing 1, 3, 2, 1, and 2 shots on target in his last five starts. Over the season he averages 1.76 shots on target per 90 minutes, so clearing the one-shot-on-target mark is something he tends to do fairly often. With the model giving it a 63% probability, the numbers suggest there’s still a bit of value in the price available.
Lyon vs Paris
Tip 4: Tanner Tessmann - Over 0.5 Shots - 0.5pt
Best odds of 8/11 at BetMGM UK while publishing.
This is another line that only needs one effort to land. Tanner Tessmann has recorded a shot in 6 of his last 9 matches, showing that he does tend to get involved when his team pushes forward.
The underlying numbers are particularly encouraging here. The model rates this outcome at 77% probability, while the odds imply just 57%, which creates a strong expected value edge. His recent shot counts of 1, 1, 0, 3, and 0 show that while he doesn’t always fire, when he does get forward he can comfortably clear the line.
