How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

David Raum – Over 0.5 Shots vs Freiburg - 1pt - LOST
Yuito Suzuki – Over 1.5 Shots vs RB Leipzig - 1 pt - LOST~
Danilo Veiga – Over 2.5 Tackles vs Inter - 1pt - WON @ 19/10
Wouter Burger – Over 1.5 Fouls vs M'Gladbach - 1 pt - LOST
Nicolo Barella – Over 1.5 Tackles vs Lecce - 1pt - LOST

Running P/L: +4.8pts

Augsburg vs Union Berlin

Tip 1: Aljoscha Kemlein - Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt

Best odds of 11/10 at Ladbrokes while publishing.

Aljoscha Kemlein dominates defensive duels, averaging 2.4 tackles across his last five (2,1,7,1,1) and 1.6 this season. The high AI probability of 66% and 40% EV highlight his consistency in breaking up play for this bet builder lock.

Tip 2: Kristijan Jakic Over 0.5 Fouls - 1pt

Best odds of 8/11 at Paddy Power while publishing.

Kristijan Jakic mixes physicality with his midfield duties, committing at least one foul in most games. His last five show 0,0,1,1,2 while averaging 0.7 per game this season (AI prob 72%, EV 24%), ticking this low bar reliably against pressing opponents.

4.5
Read Full Review

Paddy Power

  • Trusted parent company
  • Industry leader in promotions/marketing
  • Competitive pricing
Get A £5 Free Bet When You Bet £10
Claim
New customer offer. Place a min £10 bet of odds of min EVS (2.0), get a £5 Multiple to use on any sport. Rewards valid for 30 days. Only deposits via Pay by Bank, Apple Pay or Debit Card will qualify. T&Cs apply. Please Gamble Responsibly.

Verona vs Bologna

Tip 3: Antoine Bernede Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds of evens at Betway while publishing.

Antoine Bernede's shot volume surges lately: 2,2,0,1,1 in his last five, hitting 1.0 per game over eight (up from 0.7 seasonal average). With 63% AI probability and 25% EV, expect him to land at least one effort here.

Como vs AC Milan

Tip 4: Maximo Perrone Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt

Best odds of 5/6 at bet365 while publishing.

Maximo Perrone battles relentlessly, logging 1,0,2,3,1 tackles in his last five to match his 1.5 seasonal average. The 61% AI probability (9% EV) backs him clearing this mark amid midfield scraps.