EFL Final Day Tips: 12/1 Over 2.5 Goals Accumulator for Saturday

The final day of the EFL season is typically a hotbed of drama and goals, and this campaign looks no different.

With that in mind, Matthew O’Regan has put together a 14/1 goals accumulator based on the historical trends of Matchday 46.

Statistics show that the final round of fixtures produces an 8% increase in matches featuring over 2.5 goals, with an average of 2.98 goals per game compared to the season norm of 2.58. 

Barnsley vs Stockport County

Over 2.5 goals - Yes

Barnsley head into the final day with nothing tangible left to play for, but this could be Conor Hourihane’s final match in charge, which should ensure a positive, attacking approach.

Their season numbers support goals, having scored 67 and conceded 70, averaging well over three per match. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 14 of their 22 home games.

Stockport, meanwhile, only need a point to secure a playoff place but could still finish as high as third. Goals have been a regular feature of their matches too, with 11 of their last 14 producing at least three goals, as well as 13 of their 22 away fixtures.

Bolton Wanderers vs Luton Town

Over 2.5 goals - Yes

Bolton have been reliable for goals at home, with 14 of their 22 fixtures going over 2.5 goals, including each of the last three. Secure in the playoff places, Michael Schumacher will be keen to see his side finish the regular season strongly.

Luton arrive in red-hot form, having taken 24 points from their last ten matches. These games have averaged three goals, and they need a win to keep alive any hope of finishing in the top six. With 11 of their last 13 matches seeing both teams score, and eight of those clearing the 2.5-goal line, an open, attacking contest looks likely.

Barrow vs Newport County

Over 2.5 goals - Yes

Barrow’s home record for goals is less convincing, with only 10 of 22 matches going over 2.5, but their situation suggests a front-foot approach. Survival is virtually out of reach barring an extraordinary goal swing, so they are expected to attack from the first whistle. That intent has shown recently, with each of their last four games featuring three or more goals, and seven of the last nine following the same pattern.

Newport are one of several sides battling relegation, and a draw may not be enough. As a result, Christian Fuchs may instruct his side to play aggressively, with 14 of their 22 away games and three of their last four overall going over 2.5 goals.

Notts County vs Bristol Rovers

Over 2.5 Goals - Yes

Notts County boast the highest over-2.5 record at home in the league, with 14 of their 22 matches clearing the line, including the last four in succession. While their playoff place is secure, a win (and other results going their way) is required to finish in the top 3 should encourage an expansive game plan.

Bristol Rovers arrive in excellent shape after Steve Evans oversaw a remarkable turnaround that lifted them clear of relegation and up to 14th. They have won eight matches in a row and 11 of their last 13, with each of their last four also producing over 2.5 goals.

Harrogate Town vs Barnet

Over 2.5 goals - Yes

Harrogate begin the day inside the relegation zone and may need a win to survive, which should naturally lead to a more attacking mindset.

Barnet have nothing riding on the result, but their underlying numbers are beginning to translate into goals. Seven of their last nine matches have gone over 2.5 goals, including the last five, which have produced a combined total of 23 goals, making this another fixture that points strongly toward a high-scoring outcome.