A quick scan of the odds ahead of a weekend’s football will often throw up a couple that raise the eyebrows and trigger a mental note to explore further.

Sometimes one can make you fall off your chair.

Backing a team in the midst of a hot run is a mug’s game. These winning runs, especially in lower leagues where the supremacy of one team over the other is far more marginal than at top tiers, are unsustainable and destined to meet an end.

Tranmere are in the midst of such a run. They have won their last six games and have given themselves an outside chance of automatic promotion out of League Two in their first season back in it.

Micky Mellon’s side have been lucky enough to rely on the goals of James Norwood who, with 26 so far this league campaign, is eight goals clear of his nearest rival. He comes into this game in rampant form with four in his last four and 10 in his last 12.

They are also a formidable force at home, picking up 40 points in their 19 games at Prenton Park, losing just three. Four wins on the bounce at home have seen just a solitary goal conceded and eight scored. All in all, there is a compelling case to be made for both Tranmere’s form and class.

They host a Carlisle team who look to be blowing their chances of a Top 7 finish. Despite occupying eighth position and currently only three points outside the play-offs, they are a 7/2 shot to get into the mix, indicative of both their early over-performance and the current struggles.

Previous manager John Sheridan’s departure was the catalyst for this collapse, although the reality is that the run of form that saw them climb the table never really looked sustainable.

Some eye-catching performances at home, namely dispatching Colchester and Oldham 4 and 6 nil respectively, had fans dreaming of an unlikely promotion push, but the arrival of Steven Pressley at the club has seen their season stall.

They have picked up just one win in their last nine and last kept a clean sheet at the end of January, nine games ago. Tranmere have scored in thirteen of their last fourteen home league ties.

Just a basic understanding of the context of this game meant that my sub-conscious price for Tranmere to beat Carlisle was odds-on, and a fair bit of odds-on too.

When you are so far out, you look for why that is. Have I missed some injuries? Is Carlisle’s shot data better than I remembered? Have I read the price correctly?

On the data point, Carlsile have registered some good performances of late. Most notably at fellow play-off hopefuls Forest Green in a 1-1 where they won the xG battle 1.76-0.40.

This is likely why we are getting odds-against on Tranmere, which has to rank as value. Tranmere’s winning run will end soon, but I’d say more likely than not it will span another weekend.