Portugal begin their new UEFA Nations League campaign at home to Wales on Thursday night, with Jorge Jesus taking charge of the reigning champions for the first time in a competitive fixture.

Portugal will be looking to put their disappointing World Cup exit behind them, while Wales arrive in Lisbon hoping to cause an upset after returning to League A. Cristiano Ronaldo remains part of the Portuguese squad at 41, while Bruno Fernandes, Nuno Mendes and Bernardo Silva provide plenty of quality around him.

Wales have shown a tendency to find the net consistently, scoring in each of their last seven matches, while both teams have scored in four of their last five games.

Portugal vs Wales Best Bet

Best Bet: Bruno Fernandes - Over 0.5 Assists
Odds: 9/5 (Coral)
Stake: 1pt

Bruno Fernandes remains one of Portugal's most important creative outlets and his numbers for the national team in 2026 underline just how involved he is in their attacking play.

The Manchester United captain has registered three assists across his 10 appearances for Portugal this year, while also scoring four goals. His output becomes even more interesting when you look at his recent friendly record, where he produced two assists in four appearances.

With Portugal expected to dominate possession against Wales, Fernandes should have plenty of opportunities to find runners around the penalty area. His set-piece delivery and ability to create chances from central areas also give him multiple routes towards an assist.

At 9/5, the assist market is an interesting way of backing Fernandes without needing Portugal's captain to score himself.

Bruno Fernandes Over 0.5
Portugal v Wales [Player Assists]
9/5

Portugal vs Wales Bet Builder Tip

Portugal vs Wales Bet Builder:

  • Yes - Both Teams To Score
  • Nuno Mendes - Over 0.5 Shots On Target
  • Bruno Fernandes - Over 0.5 Assists

Best Odds: 10/1 (Coral)

Both Teams To Score

Wales have developed a habit of finding the back of the net, scoring in each of their last seven matches and registering BTTS in four of their last five. Their most recent five games have produced 11 goals for and six against, while their last-five BTTS record stands at 100% in one available statistical dataset and 4/5 in another depending on the exact fixture window used.

Portugal are obviously the stronger side on paper and will be expected to control the match in Lisbon, but Wales have enough attacking quality to make this interesting if they can exploit the spaces left behind Portugal's aggressive full-backs.

The recent numbers also show that Wales have scored in seven consecutive matches, which makes backing them to contribute to the scoreline more appealing than simply relying on a Portugal clean sheet.

Nuno Mendes Over 0.5 Shots On Target

Shots on target in his last five games in all competitions: 2, 0, 1, 1, 0

Nuno Mendes is one of the more interesting player-prop options in this fixture because his attacking role gives him opportunities that most defenders simply do not get.

The Portugal left-back has already scored once and assisted once in 2026, and his willingness to push forward means he regularly finds himself in advanced areas. Across his 12 appearances for Portugal this year, Mendes has started 10 and accumulated more than 840 minutes, underlining how important he has become to the side.

He also has the technical quality to shoot from distance rather than always looking for a cross, while his set-piece ability adds another route towards the target. His brilliant free-kick goal at the World Cup showed exactly what he is capable of when given the opportunity to pull the trigger.

Against a Wales side likely to spend long periods defending, Mendes should have licence to overlap repeatedly and attack the space in front of him.

The line only requires one shot on target.

Bruno Fernandes Over 0.5 Assists

Fernandes has three assists in his last eight Portugal appearances and has already produced three assists across 14 appearances for the national team in 2026.

The 32-year-old will also be keen to start a new chapter with Portugal following their World Cup exit, with Jorge Jesus now taking charge of the national team.

Fernandes' importance to Portugal's attack should remain unchanged. He is comfortable dropping deeper to receive the ball, finding pockets between midfield and defence and delivering the final pass when Portugal move into the final third.

He also has plenty of targets around him.

Whether it is Ronaldo making his usual movement inside the box, Bernardo Silva drifting into dangerous positions or Portugal's full-backs arriving from deep, Fernandes has several players capable of turning his creativity into goals.

Portugal vs Wales Player Bet

Best Bet: Nuno Mendes - Over 0.5 Shots On Target
Best Odds: 9/5 (Coral)
Stake: 1pt

Mendes' attacking role makes this one of the more appealing player markets in the game.

Portugal should have the majority of the ball and Mendes is likely to spend plenty of time operating in the final third. His last five shots-on-target figures read 2, 0, 1, 1, 0, meaning he has cleared this line in three of those five matches.

With Wales likely to defend deep for long periods, Mendes should have opportunities to get forward, combine with Portugal's attackers and take aim when space opens up.

The fact that he is also a genuine threat from free-kicks only adds another avenue towards landing the bet.

Nuno Mendes Over 0.5
Portugal v Wales [Player Shots On Target]
8/5