Will this be remembered as the day Liverpool won the Premier League?
In the past decade or so, we’ve seen very few truly title-defining Premier League matches. Manchester City beating Manchester United in April 2012 immediately springs to mind; Liverpool v Chelsea in 2014 with Stevie G’s slip is definitely another; it may still be January, but you do feel this season’s Premier League title could hinge on Thursday’s result.
A City victory would cut Liverpool’s lead at the top of the league to four points, and as a result, those oh-so familiar doubts may start to creep back into the minds of Jurgen Klopp’s players.
However, if Liverpool avoid defeat, City would have to overturn a deficit of at least seven points in the remaining 17 matches. It doesn’t sound like a lot, but considering Liverpool have dropped points on just three occasions this season, it may still be enough.
Onto Thursday’s match, and a result looks nigh on impossible to call. Klopp does have a fantastic record against Pep Guardiola – four wins, two draws and just one defeat – and that’s a very hard statistic to ignore when trying to predict a result.
His high-pressing ‘Rock and Roll Football’ is clearly all wrong for Guardiola sides and Pep, like at Anfield back in October, must find a way to nullify Liverpool’s attacking potency.
Kevin De Bruyne is definitely not fully fit, though Guardiola will have little choice but to risk him at some stage, but City’s biggest issue is at left-back, where Benjamin Mendy and Fabian Delph (who isn’t even a full-back) are injured and suspended respectively.
This means either Oleksandr Zinchenko (who had a shocker against Southampton) or centre-back Aymeric Laporte will fill in at left-back…against Mo Salah.
When you look at Liverpool you simply can’t see any weaknesses. They’ve always had goals in their side, but the fact that they’ve conceded just eight times all season is nothing short of remarkable. Do they have a chance of bettering Chelsea’s remarkable 2004/5 record of conceding just 15 all season?
City have won just one of the last four meetings between these two at the Etihad, and considering the sides’ differing recent fortunes, I just can’t see a home win.
I’m backing a draw at 29/10.
My next tip is a RAB which is priced at evens: over 1.5 goals, 3+ corners for each team and 30+ match booking points.
I’m relatively confident about over 1.5 goals; Liverpool are my most likely candidates to score – especially considering City have shipped seven goals in their last four – although let’s be honest, despite Liverpool’s incredible defence, Pep’s men are more than capable of breaching it.
3+ corners for each team should be a banker while, in a match of such magnitude, three bookings in total is easily achievable.
Four yellows were dished out in the first meeting at Anfield, so let’s hope for more of the same!
I’ll end with a really nice price boost: Mo Salah to assist a goal at 4/1.
Considering City won’t field a recognised left-back, you can be sure Salah will get plenty of joy down that right flank, like against Arsenal last week.
The Egyptian also has seven assists this season – bettered only by Ryan Fraser and Eden Hazard – so he’s far from just a goals merchant.
Salah will be sure to play a decisive role in this Premier League crunch match – let’s just hope it’s with an assist.
Follow @RyanEJourno
