Who will enjoy the bragging rights between these two bitter rivals?
Crystal Palace v Brighton is always an intense affair – the hatred runs deep. Albion finally avenged their 2013 Championship play-off semi-final defeat against Crystal Palace back in December, where Chris Hughton’s men recorded a stunning 3-1 victory despite being down to 10 men for a huge portion of the match.
The Seagulls are now three points behind Palace with a game in hand, but have just one win at Selhurst Park in 34 years; not the sort of record you want against your biggest rivals, although it would be a fantastic time for them to get one over on over on Palace considering their precarious position in the table.
There certainly is hope for Brighton: Palace have the second-worst home record in the league – earning just 13 points from their 14 matches at Selhurst, scoring just 10 goals in the process.
But the bad news for the Seagulls is they have just eight away points all season, and look unlikely to earn any more. There’s a sense that all of Brighton’s away games are write-offs, and their survival will hinge on a few key home clashes.
My first tip (and it pains me to write this as a Brighton fan) is a Palace win. Albion’s record at Selhurst Park is dreadful, and they just seem to hit a brick wall when playing on the road. Their win against Huddersfield was massive, but Palace have lost just one of their last eight matches, and I think they’ll have enough for this travel-sick Seagulls side.
A stats-based tip next: Palace to earn over two corners in each half.
The Eagles average 5.76 corners per match – the fourth-highest in the league – and with the added intensity of this fixture, coupled with Palace’s expected dominance for the majority of it, I wouldn’t be surprised to see plenty of home corners awarded.
Finally, as a bit of a longshot, I’m backing a red card to be awarded.
Much like the first match between these two – where Shane Duffy was dismissed for a ‘headbutt’ – there will be ill-tempered fireworks cracking off all over the pitch.
For such a big match and a big rivalry, 5/1 for a red card – particularly because the sides have already accumulated five between them – looks tempting.
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