City cannot afford another slip-up against rock solid Palace.
The term ‘banana skin’ comes to mind with this fixture.
Manchester City are already eight points behind Liverpool in the title race, and with the Reds guaranteed three points against relegation-battling Manchester United on Sunday, Pep Guardiola has to win at Selhurst Park.
However, Crystal Palace are notoriously good against the big boys; their rock solid defence, coupled with the ability to break with pace and devastation, has claimed the scalps of many Premier League giants over the years.
What’s more, City have only won one of their last three matches against Palace, and with the Eagles sitting 6th in the Premier League—having earned more points than their visitors over the last six matches—you have to believe there’s a chance of another upset.
After Manchester City lost at Carrow Road, Watford were the pour souls who bore the brunt of this result, as Pep guided his side to an 8-0 mauling, but Palace won’t be nearly as charitable in defence, and this won’t be one of those cases of City taking out their vengeance after a loss.
Vicente Guaita has conceded just one single goal at Selhurst Park this season, and this excellent defensive record will doubtless frustrate City for large periods of time – just like in the last two meetings between these two at this ground.
My tip for this match is a Crystal Palace +2 handicap. It would still surprise me if they got a result, but Palace’s resoluteness at the back (which will be enhanced if Mamadou Sakho returns from injury) means there’s a good chance of them losing by just the single goal.
Palace have lost by more than a goal in just six of their last 14 matches against top six sides—which is a pretty good return—and with City’s fallibilities showing more than expected this season, the Eagles may really make a game of it.
The Selhurst Park faithful have seen just one goal in the first half at either end this season, and there’s value in backing under 1.5 goals in the first 45 for this game.
During the last six fixtures between Palace and City, we’ve seen over 1.5 first half goals on just a single occasion, and I’d be surprised if this changed on Saturday.
If/when City do break Roy Hodgson’s men down, I expect Raheem Sterling to be the man who scores first.
The England man scored the first two goals in this fixture back in April, and has now found the net six times in his last six games against the Eagles.
Sterling is such a consistent source of goals for City, so 4/1 for him to bag first seems like good value.
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