
Can Sheffield United claim their first big Premier League scalp under the Bramall Lane lights?
Arsenal’s trip to Bramall Lane throws up some very interesting questions on Monday, and it’s a fixture I’m certainly looking forward to.
It’s the prospect of seeing a rock solid defence against a potent attack; a side who have struggled at home against a side who are notoriously bad on the road.
It’s safe to say Blades fans will be delighted with the way they’ve started this Premier League season – earning nine points from their eight matches and conceding just seven times. It’s early days, but this solidity at the back will be absolutely crucial later in the season, when Wilder may require his side to dig deep and grind out results to stay in the Premier League.
In fact, they’ve kept more clean sheets than Arsenal—which should no longer come as much of a surprise—and are unbeaten in their four away games against Bournemouth, Chelsea, Everton and Watford. Mightily impressive.
But at home, they’ve lost their last three (scoring just once in that time), and can’t seem to quite get it right, but the signs are really good - as we saw during that heartbreaking defeat against Liverpool.
And what of Arsenal? They’ve won just one of their four away games—most recently drawing at Old Trafford—and it’s hard to know what to make of them. Sheffield United’s lack of goals is an issue, but Arsenal are notoriously leaky at the back, and if the Blades can hold firm like they did against Liverpool, it’s hard to see how this fixture pans out.
For me, the value is with backing Arsenal to win and under 3.5 goals at a chunky 19/10. Seven of United’s eight matches have seen under four goals, and even though Arsenal games are generally more open, they’ve still had four games end with under 3.5 goals scored.
Then there’s the result. With Alexandre Lacazette likely to return, and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang smashing the goals in, United’s lack of firepower may be punished if the Arsenal front line is firing.
Would a Blades win or draw surprise me? No. But a closely-fought Arsenal win at 19/10 is surely a price well worth gobbling up.
Along the same lines, under 1.5 goals in the first-half looks a very solid bet.
86% of United’s goals have come in the second-half of matches this season (i.e. all but one), while Arsenal are at 62% as far as second-half goals are concerned.
Wilder will want to frustrate Arsenal for as long as possible (see: Liverpool match), which is why a war of attrition is to be expected.
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