Leeds v Arsenal prediction & betting tips brought to you by football expert Tom Love.
- Arsenal have lost 4 of their last 6 league games.
- Arsenal have won just 6 of their last 23 league away games.
- Leeds won 15/23 home games at Elland Road last season and were undefeated in 20/23
20 years ago this would’ve been one of the stellar premier league fixtures and it’s a real throwback of a game between two sides with differing approaches.
Where is the value?
Marcelo Bielsa has let his side continue in the same vein as they did in their promotion campaign. Open, attacking football is the order of the day and it does make the Whites an entertaining watch. Whether or not they have to discipline to try challenge the top 6, I’m not so sure, however they have shown themselves to be more than capable with the step up from the second tier.
Arsenal have yet to truly convince this season. Positive changes have been made by Mikel Arteta, but this side cannot be trusted in their current guise. They’ve really struggled to get the ball into dangerous areas and have poor stats when it comes to touches in the opposition box. To be fair to Arteta he has largely rectified what was a shambolic defence but ultimately it has affecting their attacking process.
I’m surprised that Arsenal are so short here and I’m happy to take Leeds with a +0.25 start on the asian handicap at 19/20. This would see us profit if the hosts avoid defeat with a full stakes win if they take the three points and a half stakes win if it ends all square.
I do expect Leeds to be the protagonists here, playing the leading role with the ball as Arsenal sit of and try and counter. With that in mind, the odds against on Leeds to have the most corners in the match looks an intriguing angle.
The West Yorkshire side have hit 5, 7, 8 and 10 corners at Elland Road this season, they’ve also hit 5, 6 and 7 away from home when you exclude their game at Anfield. Arsenal have only had more corners in one of their away games this season, against Fulham, a game where they only had 3 flag kicks.
What’s more, Arsenal lost the corner match bet in 63% of away games last season whereas Leeds won the corner match bet in 78% of their home games last season.