• Liverpool have won 29 of their last 30 premier league home games.
  • Liverpool are unbeaten in 63 games at Anfield.
  • Leicester have lost 5 of their last 6 against Liverpool.
  • Leicester have conceded 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 6 games against Liverpool.

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It’s extremely rare to see Liverpool at anywhere near even-money at Anfield but Sunday is an exception and it’s very, very hard not to be drawn in by the Reds at such quotes.

There are reasons that they’ve drifted like a barge, namely their injury concerns to key players. Virgil Van Dijk is out for the foreseeable future whilst Trent Alexander-Arnold and Mo Salah are out with injury and COVID respectively. However, Liverpool have recruited superbly to cover players in these situations. Utility man James Milner can slot into right-back comfortably if Jurgen Klopp doesn’t want to start youngster Neco Williams. Klopp can also start with a front three of Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino and Diogo Jota. Not bad eh?

Where is the value?

  Liverpool Draw Leicester
Best Odds 19/20 3/1 29/10

What’s more, Thiago should be back fit to run the show in midfield with trusty duo Jordan Henderson and Gini Wijnaldum supporting him in the middle of the park. Andy Robertson should be available too after a knock on international duty with Scotland.

Their league record at Anfield is quite insane. They’ve gone 63 games without defeat at home and have won 29 of their last 30. It’s not like Leicester are the best team in the league, so even with a few injuries, the hosts should be shorter.

Leicester have a poor record against the Merseysiders too. 5 of the last 6 meetings have seen them lose, including both last season. I’m not convinced they’ve been as good as people make out.

The Foxes have seen 44% of their total expected goals figure come from penalty kicks, showing their reliance of winning fouls in the box. Liverpool aren’t a side who give away many penalties and referee Chris Kavanagh averages the fewest penalty awards in the league.

Defensively though you have to give Brendan Rodgers plenty of credit. They’ve been without the large majority of their back 4 from last season and have coped admirably without midfield lynchpin Wilfred N’didi. Wesley Fofana has stepped up superbly but this will be his toughest test of the season, even the best of them struggle with the Liverpool front three

All in all I’m shocked you can get 19/20 on the home win here and I’m happy to make it a 3 point play given the overwhelming stats.

One player that does interest me in the cards market is James Milner. No longer in the international reckoning, Milner will be well rested and is a more than capable replacement at full back or in midfield and should deputise on Sunday. He’s more than happy to take one for the team with cards in both his starts this season which both came in the champions league. He was also booked in the Community Shield at the start of the campaign.

He’s priced up at 15/4 for a caution which looks nice considering he could be up against the lively Harvey Barnes. Interestingly, Milner has picked up the first card in 2 of his last 3 games where he’s been put in the book and that’s a tempting 12/1 shot if you’re after something a bit bigger. The 15/4 looks more than fair, though.

Liverpool to win - 3pts @ 19/20
James Milner to be carded - 1pt @ 15/4