20:00 - Chelsea v Leeds

Chelsea continued their excellent form with a mesmerising 4-0 win in Seville midweek. Olivier Giroud was once again the main man for the blues in the Champions League and has to come into Frank Lampard’s reckoning for a start on Saturday night. That being said, given how Leeds play and how susceptible they are at the back against pace I’d expect Lampard to revert to a front 3 of Hakim Ziyech, Tammy Abraham and Timo Werner here.

Werner could be a key asset with his electric pace and willingness to play on the shoulder. Robin Koch and Liam Cooper have struggled against players that put them on the back foot and it will be a key battle on the pitch. The Whites were dominant in their win at Everton last time out, Kalvin Phillips ran the show in the idle of the park and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Lampard sacrifice an attacker to sit on Phillips and stop him getting on the ball.

Where is the value?

  Chelsea Draw Leeds
Best Odds 11/20 7/2 5/1

It should be an interesting tactical battle and it should have plenty of needle given the two managers were either side of the Spygate scandal. It’s a tricky one to call but I di think each side will be well aware of each other’s threats but given the form Chelsea are in, I’d fancy them to sneak it. Quotes of 4/7 on the hosts may look a little skinny but we can get odds-against by chucking in under 4.5 goals. It’s been a profitable recipe when wanting to get Chelsea on side this season.

I will look elsewhere for my best bet though and that’s to get Leeds with a +3 start on the corner handicap at 4/5. Leeds have racked up 5 or more corners in 8/10 games this season, mainly due to their ability to pen teams in their own half with the press. They’ve stayed within this handicap in 8/10 too, the only ones where they failed to were on opening day vs Liverpool and against Man City who only just overcame the handicap.

Chelsea have actually lost the corner match bet in 4/10 games and this particular bet has landed in 7/10 games against them. I’d imagine that it will be a bit tighter than the betting suggests and the 4/5 on offer on that particular line is very tempting indeed.

Chelsea to win and under 4.5 goals - 1pt @ 21/20
Leeds +3 corner handicap - 2pts @ 4/5