Arsenal vs Burnley prediction & betting tips brought to you by football expert Tom Love.
- Arsenal have failed to score in 5 of their last 7 league games.
- Arsenal have lost their last 3 league matches at home.
- Burnley have the 7th best defensive xG process this season
I’m expecting this game to be much tighter than the odds suggest. Arsenal look very short for a team that have show so little in the final third this season, they’ve lost 5 of their last 7 let’s not forget. Burnley haven’t been brilliant this season, especially going forward, but they have a good chance of keeping Arsenal to 0 or 1 goals when looking at the respective underlying data of the two. Burnley have a defensive process that matches the Gunners numbers and their price is highly inflated due to club reputation here in my eyes.
Where is the value?
| Arsenal | Draw | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best Odds | 4/7 | 17/5 | 31/5 |
The way I’m inclined to play this is to take Burnley on the Asian handicap. We can back the Clarets with a +1 start at even-money and that does appeal. Backing this line means we will win if Burnley avoid defeat but even if Arsenal win by 1 goal we will get our stake returned. The only way we’d lose is if Arsenal won by 2 or more goals, something they’ve failed to do since the opening game of the season in the league.
