Check out Oli Nixon's betting tips for Gameweek 12 of the Premier League. He's over 7pts in profit over his last five columns.
Now that the internationals are done up until March, the frantic festive period of Premier League football can begin without the looming interruptions that international football has brought for the last three months.
With focus fully on club football, we can get back to adding more profit to the coffers and continuing to our good form from this column.
Reinildo Mandava o1.5 fouls committed vs Fulham – 1pt
Best price of 17/10 with PricedUp / Star Sports when publishing. As short as 1/2 elsewhere.
Since arriving in the Premier League, Reinildo Mandava has been all action, averaging 1.74 fouls per 90 and picking up two yellows and a red card in eight starts. The Mozambique international has been involved in physical duels against a number of tricky wingers including Bukayo Saka, Iliman Ndiaye and Pedro Neto and has made at least two fouls against each of those, as he has done in each of his last four starts. His career average of 1.4 fouls per game for club and country also suggests that he’s likely to keep this aggression up.
In Harry Wilson, Reinildo has another difficult opponent who is well adept at drawing late contact. The Welshman will be full of confidence after his midweek hat-trick for his country and his record of 1.64 fouls drawn per 90 this season emphasises how well he draws his opposite number in. Given Reinildo’s habit of diving in and his record on English shores, this looks a must back at the price.
Brighton vs Brentford
Kevin Schade o1.5 fouls committed vs Brighton – 1pt
Best odds of 17/10 with William Hill when publishing. As short as 4/6 elsewhere.
Another player who has needed no invitation to get stuck in is Brentford’s Kevin Schade whose energetic pressing has led to him committing 1.76 infringements per 90 in league action this season. The German winger has made at least two fouls in four of his last five starts and has found his way into the referee’s notebook on four occasions as his over-zealous harrying has been clamped down on by officials.
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Key to this bet is that having returned from injury before the international break, Brighton’s Joel Veltman is likely to start at right back. The Dutchman is a master at buying fouls and has been brought down 2.24 times per 90 across his limited action this season but his average of 2.38 from last season emphasises how consistent he is. He’s been felled twice in four of his five starts against Brentford and has a great match-up here to make it five from six.
Joel Veltman to be fouled o1.5 times for vs Brentford - 1 unit
Best odds of 5/6 available with Sky Bet.
Arsenal vs Tottenham
Declan Rice o1.5 tackles for Arsenal v Tottenham – 2pts
Best price of 19/20 with Ladbrokes / Coral when publishing.
The North London Derby is always hotly contested and given that this fixture last season produced 42 tackles with Arsenal responsible for half of those, it makes sense to attack one of their players. We also have a Spurs side who have drawn more tackles than any other Premier League side this season with 20.5 and digging into their data, central midfielders are responsible for the bulk of these with 57 across their last eight matches in all competitions.
In Declan Rice, we also have a player who is averaging 1.9 tackles per 90 in league action and has made 12 across his last three starts. He’s also dispossessed Spurs players seven times across his last two starts against them and so everything suggests that this price is far too big for him to get another couple.
