How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Mateus Mané – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - 4/5 - LOST
Mohamed Salah – Over 2.5 Shots - 1pt - 21/20 - LOST
Virgil van Dijk – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt - 17/20 - WON
Enzo Le Fée – Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt - 17/20 - WON
Jaidon Anthony – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - 59/50 - WON
Accumulator Tip - 0.5pts - 6/1 - LOST

Running P/L: +21.8pts

Tip 1: Benjamin Sesko - Anytime Goalscorer (0.5pts)

Benjamin Sesko has scored in five of his previous seven appearances and has now forced his way into the Manchester United starting eleven. Newcastle haven't kept a clean sheet in eleven games and that run looks set to continue against a United attack who have found their form under Michael Carrick. 

42% AI probability | 32% implied | 31% EV | 2/1 with William Hill (Impact Sub)

Tip 2: Cole Palmer - Anytime Goalscorer vs Aston Villa (0.5pts)

Despite not scoring in back-to-back games, this price looks big for a Cole Palmer goal. The Chelsea talisman has had 3+ shots in his last four head-to-head matches vs Villa and faces a side who have only kept two clean sheets in their last 10 home matches. 

41% AI probability | 33% implied | 23% EV | 2/1 with Sky Bet

Goalscorer Double

Benjamin Sesko & Cole Palmer - Anytime Goalscorer
Best odds of 15/2 with BetMGM. 13/2 with William Hill - Best Super Sub Odds.

Add to your betslip here!

Tip 3: Enzo Fernandez - Over 1.5 Fouls vs Aston Villa - 1.5pts

Enzo Fernandez looks primed to commit two or more fouls in Wednesday's match vs Aston Villa, the Premier League's most fouled side. In his previous two meetings against Villa, Enzo has committed four fouls and picked up a yellow card in both. In what is a crucial match in the race for Champions League positions, look for Enzo to commit 2+ fouls in a fourth consecutive match vs Villa. 

57% AI probability | 47% implied | 23% EV | 6/4 with Coral/Labrokes

Tip 4: Joachim Andersen - Over 1.5 Tackles vs West Ham - 1pt

After missing out Fulham's win vs Tottenham with an illness, Marco Silva has confirmed Andersen will be back to face West Ham on Wednesday. The Danish centre-back has had 2+ tackles in four of his previous six matches and had 3 the last time Fulham hosted West Ham at Craven Cottage. 

61% AI probability | 41% implied | 20% EV | 11/10 with bet365 (Super Sub)

Tip 5: Amadou Onana - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

After getting dominated by Arsenal on Sunday via set pieces, Aston Villa should look to exploit Chelsea again on Wednesday night. Who better to throw at the Chelsea defence than Amadou Onana. He's had at least one shot in his last three starts and his minutes should be solid with Kamara, McGinn, and Tielemans all out for Villa. 

71% AI probability | 53% implied | 35% EV | 9/10 with BetMGM