Tip 1: O22.5 shots in Brentford v Fulham – 1 unit

Best odds of 17/20 at Betway while publishing.

This London derby sees both teams unexpectedly in contention for European qualification and therefore should be an entertaining affair with Brentford and Fulham both going for it. Fulham games have been very open in recent weeks with shot counts of 37, 17, 24, 27, 27, 22 and 28 in their last seven at an average of 26 per game. Their away games this season have produced 24.31 efforts at goal per game and they seem intent on attacking games to see out the season.

For Brentford, their home games have produced 23.94 shots on average with 23 or more in 10 of 16 at the Gtech, including in each of their last three as hosts. This has the feel of a game where both teams will really want to win and so I’m happy with this shot line whatever the game-state and recent matches for both sides show that they’re prepared to go on the attack.

Newcastle v Bournemouth

Tip 2: Malick Thiaw o0.5 fouls committed – 1 unit

Best odds of 4/5 at Betway while publishing.

Having played nearly 50 games across all competitions already this season, Malick Thiaw is starting to look fatigued, committing seven fouls across his last four Premier League starts, landing this bet in all of those. The German defender is averaging 0.78 offences per 90 across the season and having been whistled three times and been carded in the reverse fixture, he could be in for another tough afternoon.

Newcastle’s right sided centre back is likely to be tasked with containing Evanilson, Marcus Tavernier and Junior Kroupi who between them have drawn 3.01 fouls per 90 this season. The Cherries frontline have started to click in recent weeks and will be buoyed by their victory at the Emirates last week and so can play with confidence in the final third, regularly forcing our man into last ditch tackles which he’ll need to time perfectly.

Everton v Liverpool

Tip 3: Beto o1.5 fouls committed – 1 unit

Best odds of 27/20 at BetMGM UK while publishing.

After rotating with Thierno Barry for much of the season, Beto appears to have been given the nod by David Moyes to lead the Everton attack in recent weeks. The burly forward has been a prolific offender across his career and his average of 2.04 fouls per 90 demonstrates his attritional approach to holding the ball up. He’s made five fouls across three starts in Merseyside derbies and will be licking his lips at taking on a wounded Liverpool backline.

Mixing it with Beto will be Liverpool’s central defensive pairing of Ibrahima Konate and Virgil van Dijk, both of whom will be happy to get stuck in. The Reds duo have drawn 1.62 offences per 90 between them this season and with this being such a big occasion we can rely upon Beto to be pumped up by the atmosphere and overstep the mark a couple of times at a lovely price.

Tip 4: O13.5 Man City shots v Arsenal – 1 unit

Best odds of 17/20 at Coral/Ladbrokes while publishing.

I think we’ve all read the script for this likely title decider at the Etihad, largely because we’ve seen Arsenal go to the Etihad and play for a draw on both of their two previous visits. On both occasions, the Gunners gave up over 70% of the ball and across the two matches City racked up 45 efforts at goal. In recent weeks, a nervous Arsenal have conceded 12 shots at Brentford and 15 at Bournemouth and so with Arteta likely to put 11 men behind the ball, it’s not difficult to imagine a City bombardment.

City meanwhile have covered this shot line in six of their last nine games on their own patch and look back to their free-flowing best in the final third, blowing Liverpool away 4-0 in the FA Cup in their last game in front of their own fans. Even if they lead early, they’ll want to go for the jugular and demoralise this Arsenal side for the run-in and so hopefully the visitors stubborn defence can keep City out long enough for them to land at least 14 shots.